lucid-fdn/airdrop-farming

Airdrop Farming

Discover upcoming airdrops, check wallet eligibility, optimize farming strategies within budget constraints, estimate airdrop values, and track claims through their lifecycle.

Airdrop Analysis Procedure

When the user asks about airdrops, follow this procedure:

1. Identify the request type:

| Request Type | Action | Key Output | |-------------|--------|------------| | "Find airdrops to farm" | Discovery + Prioritization | Ranked list by estimated ROI | | "Am I eligible for X airdrop" | Eligibility Check | Criteria met/unmet, completion % | | "How much is X airdrop worth" | Value Estimation | Estimated token value range | | "What should I farm with $X budget" | Budget Optimization | Optimized farming plan | | "Track my airdrops" | Claim Tracking | Status of all claimed/pending drops | | "When are snapshot dates" | Calendar View | Timeline of upcoming events |

2. Gather relevant data for the analysis type.

3. Apply algorithms from reference files for scoring, estimation, or optimization.

4. Present results with confidence levels and actionable next steps.

Airdrop Lifecycle

Every airdrop progresses through these stages:

RUMORED -> ANNOUNCED -> FARMING -> SNAPSHOT -> CLAIMABLE -> CLAIMED/EXPIRED

Stages:
  RUMORED:    No official confirmation; community speculation based on VC funding,
              token-less protocol, competitor airdrops
  ANNOUNCED:  Protocol officially confirms airdrop; criteria may or may not be public
  FARMING:    Active period where interactions count toward eligibility
  SNAPSHOT:   Block/date at which eligibility is frozen; no further interactions count
  CLAIMABLE:  Tokens available to claim; claim window is open
  CLAIMED:    User has successfully claimed tokens
  EXPIRED:    Claim window has closed; unclaimed tokens returned to treasury

Lifecycle Tracking Schema

| Field | Type | Description | |-------|------|-------------| | protocol_name | string | Protocol name | | chain | string | Primary chain | | category | string | DeFi, L2, Infrastructure, Gaming, Social, DAO | | stage | string | Current lifecycle stage | | announced_date | date | When officially announced (if applicable) | | snapshot_date | date | When snapshot occurs/occurred | | claim_start | date | When claiming opens | | claim_deadline | date | When claiming expires | | estimated_value_usd | range | Low-mid-high value estimate | | farming_cost_usd | number | Estimated cost to qualify | | confidence | string | High, Medium, Low |

Eligibility Checking

Evaluate a wallet's qualification status against known or inferred airdrop criteria.

Standard Criteria Types

| Criteria Type | Description | How to Check | |--------------|-------------|-------------| | Transaction Count | Minimum number of transactions on the protocol | Query wallet tx history, filter by protocol contracts | | Volume | Minimum swap/trade volume in USD | Sum USD value of all qualifying transactions | | TVL / Deposit | Minimum amount deposited or held in protocol | Check current and historical protocol positions | | Time Active | Minimum time using the protocol | First tx date to last tx date on protocol | | Unique Days | Minimum distinct days with activity | Count unique dates of protocol transactions | | Unique Months | Minimum distinct months with activity | Count unique months of protocol transactions | | Bridge Volume | Minimum bridged amount | Sum bridge transaction values | | LP Provision | Provided liquidity to protocol pools | Check LP token holdings or add/remove liquidity txs | | Governance | Voted in governance proposals | Check governance contract interactions | | Testnet | Interacted with testnet version | Check testnet chain transactions | | NFT Holder | Hold a specific NFT collection | Check NFT balances | | Social | Connected social accounts, joined Discord | Cannot verify on-chain; user must self-report |

Eligibility Scoring

For each criterion:
  met = true/false (has the wallet satisfied this criterion?)
  weight = importance weight (sum of all weights = 100)
  progress = current_value / required_value (capped at 1.0)

Eligibility Score = sum(weight * progress) for all criteria

Qualification Tiers:
  Score >= 90  -> HIGHLY LIKELY eligible (most criteria exceeded)
  Score 70-89  -> LIKELY eligible (core criteria met)
  Score 50-69  -> POSSIBLE (some criteria met, gaps remain)
  Score 30-49  -> UNLIKELY (significant gaps)
  Score < 30   -> NOT ELIGIBLE (major criteria unmet)

Example Eligibility Check

Protocol: LayerZero
Criteria:
  [x] Bridge transactions >= 5     (user has 8)    weight: 25, progress: 1.0
  [x] Unique chains >= 3           (user has 5)    weight: 20, progress: 1.0
  [x] Total volume >= $1,000       (user has $4.2K) weight: 20, progress: 1.0
  [ ] Unique months >= 6           (user has 3)    weight: 20, progress: 0.5
  [x] Source chain diversity >= 2  (user has 3)    weight: 15, progress: 1.0

Score = 25*1.0 + 20*1.0 + 20*1.0 + 20*0.5 + 15*1.0 = 90
-> HIGHLY LIKELY eligible

See references/eligibility-criteria.md for criteria templates for known protocols.

Value Estimation

Estimate the USD value of an upcoming airdrop using comparable project analysis.

Comparable Project Method

Step 1: Find comparable projects that already airdropped
  - Same category (L2, DEX, Lending, Bridge, etc.)
  - Similar TVL at time of airdrop
  - Similar funding raised
  - Similar user count

Step 2: Gather airdrop metrics from comparables
  For each comparable:
    FDV_at_launch     = Fully Diluted Valuation at token launch
    airdrop_pct       = Percentage of supply allocated to airdrop
    total_recipients  = Number of eligible wallets
    median_claim_usd  = Median claim value in USD

Step 3: Estimate for target protocol
  Estimated FDV = based on funding raised * typical multiple for category
    Seed round: 10-20x
    Series A: 5-10x
    Series B: 3-5x

  Estimated Airdrop Pool = FDV * estimated_airdrop_pct (typically 5-15%)
  Estimated Per Wallet = Airdrop Pool / estimated_recipients

  Present as range:
    Low estimate:  Conservative FDV * low airdrop % / high recipient count
    Mid estimate:  Median comparable values
    High estimate: Optimistic FDV * high airdrop % / low recipient count

Category Benchmarks

| Category | Typical Airdrop % | Typical FDV Multiple | Median Claim (USD) | |----------|-------------------|---------------------|-------------------| | L2 | 5-12% | 10-50x funding | $500 - $5,000 | | DEX | 5-15% | 5-30x funding | $200 - $3,000 | | Lending | 5-10% | 5-20x funding | $300 - $2,000 | | Bridge | 5-10% | 5-15x funding | $200 - $1,500 | | Infrastructure | 3-8% | 10-50x funding | $100 - $2,000 | | Gaming | 5-15% | 3-15x funding | $50 - $500 | | Social | 5-15% | 3-20x funding | $50 - $1,000 |

See references/farming-strategies.md for detailed ROI formulas.

Farming Optimization

Given a budget, recommend the optimal set of protocols to farm.

Budget-Constrained Optimization

Inputs:
  budget:          Total USD available for farming
  risk_tolerance:  conservative, moderate, aggressive
  time_available:  hours per week the user can dedicate

For each candidate protocol:
  estimated_cost    = gas fees + minimum deposit + transaction costs
  estimated_value   = mid_estimate from value estimation
  estimated_roi     = (estimated_value - estimated_cost) / estimated_cost * 100
  time_required     = estimated hours to complete all criteria
  confidence        = airdrop probability (high=0.8, medium=0.5, low=0.2)
  expected_value    = estimated_value * confidence
  expected_roi      = (expected_value - estimated_cost) / estimated_cost * 100

Optimization:
  Sort protocols by expected_roi descending
  Greedily allocate budget:
    For each protocol (highest expected_roi first):
      If estimated_cost <= remaining_budget AND time_required <= remaining_time:
        Add to farming plan
        remaining_budget -= estimated_cost
        remaining_time -= time_required

  Present plan as ordered list with:
    Protocol, Chain, Estimated Cost, Expected Value, Expected ROI, Confidence, Tasks

Risk-Adjusted Recommendations

| Risk Tolerance | Confidence Filter | Min Expected ROI | |---------------|-------------------|-----------------| | Conservative | High only | > 200% | | Moderate | High + Medium | > 100% | | Aggressive | All | > 50% |

Interaction Tracking

Track which farming tasks have been completed for each protocol.

Interaction Types

| Type | Description | Verification | |------|-------------|-------------| | Swap | Token swap on protocol's DEX | Tx to router contract | | Bridge | Cross-chain token transfer | Bridge contract interaction | | Deposit | Deposit into lending/vault | Deposit function call | | Withdraw | Withdraw from lending/vault | Withdraw function call | | LP Add | Add liquidity to pool | addLiquidity function call | | LP Remove | Remove liquidity from pool | removeLiquidity function call | | Stake | Stake tokens in protocol | Stake function call | | Unstake | Unstake tokens from protocol | Unstake function call | | Vote | Governance vote | Governor contract interaction | | Claim | Claim rewards | Claim function call | | Mint | Mint NFT or token | Mint function call |

Progress Tracking Template

Protocol: [Name]
Chain: [Chain]
Stage: FARMING
Started: [Date]
Budget Spent: $[X] / $[Budget]

Tasks:
  [x] First swap on protocol         ($2.50 gas)    [tx: 0x...]
  [x] Bridge to/from protocol        ($5.00 gas)    [tx: 0x...]
  [ ] Provide liquidity (min $100)   (~$3.00 gas)   [pending]
  [ ] Hold LP for 30 days            (no cost)      [waiting]
  [ ] 3 unique months of activity    (month 1 of 3) [in progress]
  [ ] Governance vote                (~$1.00 gas)   [waiting for proposal]

Completion: 33% (2/6 tasks)
Est. Remaining Cost: $4.00 gas + $100 LP deposit

Calendar View

Present upcoming airdrop events in chronological order.

Calendar Format

=== UPCOMING EVENTS ===

Feb 2026:
  [15] Protocol A — Snapshot date (FARMING ends)
  [28] Protocol B — Claim deadline (EXPIRES)

Mar 2026:
  [01] Protocol C — Claim opens (CLAIMABLE)
  [15] Protocol D — Estimated snapshot (RUMORED)

Apr 2026:
  [TBD] Protocol E — Expected launch (ANNOUNCED)

Priority Flags

| Flag | Meaning | Action | |------|---------|--------| | URGENT | Snapshot/deadline within 7 days | Complete farming tasks NOW | | SOON | Event within 30 days | Plan and begin execution | | PLANNED | Event 30-90 days out | Monitor and prepare | | WATCHING | Event > 90 days or TBD | Track for updates |