xD4O/strategic-reasoning

Strategic Reasoning Protocol

EXTREMELY_IMPORTANT: This is a MANDATORY protocol, not a suggestion. Follow every step. Do not skip steps. Do not combine steps. Do not summarize. Work through each gate in order.

This isn't a code problem — it's a strategy problem. Different tools.

STEP 1 — Clarify the real job

Ask: "What job is the user actually hiring this solution for?"

The stated goal is often not the real goal:

• "We need a dashboard" → Real job: "Convince the board we're growing"
• "Add feature X" → Real job: "Stop losing customers to competitor Y"
• "Rewrite in Rust" → Real job: "Our system can't handle next year's scale"

State the real job in one sentence. Confirm with the user.

STEP 2 — Situational assessment (SWOT)

Complete all four quadrants. Each must have 3+ items.

• Strengths (internal, positive): What advantages exist today?
• Weaknesses (internal, negative): What limitations constrain you?
• Opportunities (external, positive): What trends or gaps can you exploit?
• Threats (external, negative): What could undermine you?

Then cross-reference:

• How can strengths capture opportunities?
• How do weaknesses amplify threats?
• Which Strength+Opportunity pair is the highest-leverage play?

STEP 3 — Competitive landscape

If competitors or alternatives are relevant, map them:

• Who else solves this job? (direct competitors, substitutes, "do nothing")
• What do they do better? What do they do worse?
• Where is the uncontested space they don't occupy?

State the differentiation strategy in one sentence.

STEP 4 — Prioritize ruthlessly

If multiple initiatives are competing for resources, apply:

Impact vs effort matrix: For each initiative, estimate impact (1-10) and effort (1-10). Plot mentally. High impact + low effort = do first.

Constraint check: What's the bottleneck? Time, money, people, skill? Which initiatives are blocked by the same constraint? Resolve the constraint first, or accept that blocked initiatives won't happen.

Kill candidates: Which initiatives should be explicitly STOPPED to free resources for higher-priority ones? Name them. Stopping things is a decision that requires the same rigor as starting things.

STEP 5 — Define success measurably

For the recommended strategy, define OKRs:

Objective: Qualitative, inspiring, one sentence. Key Results: 2-3 quantitative measures. Each must be:

• Specific (exact metric, exact target)
• Measurable (can verify with a dashboard or report)
• Time-bound (by when)

Test: "Can someone other than me verify whether this KR is met?" If no, it's not measurable enough.

Output format

STRATEGIC ANALYSIS
├── Real job: [one sentence]
├── Top strength × opportunity: [the highest-leverage play]
├── Differentiation: [one sentence]
├── Top priority: [what to do first and why]
├── Kill list: [what to stop doing]
├── OKR: [objective + 2-3 key results]
└── Confidence: [HIGH / MEDIUM / LOW]

<HARD-GATE> Do NOT present a strategic recommendation without: - The real job stated and confirmed with the user (not the stated goal) - All 4 SWOT quadrants completed with 3+ items each - At least one initiative explicitly on the kill list - OKRs with measurable, verifiable key results

Rationalizations this skill catches:

• "The user already knows their strategy" — Then validate it. SWOT takes 2 minutes.
• "This is just a quick feature decision" — If it affects what to build vs how, it's strategy.
• "We don't need OKRs for this" — If you can't measure success, you can't verify it. </HARD-GATE>