skills/hypothesis_generation/SKILL.md
Bilimsel hipotez oluşturma, deney tasarımı ve test metodolojisi rehberi.
npx skillsauth add vuralserhat86/antigravity-agentic-skills hypothesis_generationInstall this skill globally with one command. Works with Claude Code, Cursor, and Windsurf.
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Bilimsel hipotez oluşturma ve test metodolojisi rehberi.
IF [independent variable/action]
THEN [dependent variable/outcome]
BECAUSE [mechanism/reasoning]
IF we reduce checkout steps from 5 to 3
THEN conversion rate will increase by 15%
BECAUSE fewer steps reduce friction and drop-off
| Kriter | Açıklama | |--------|----------| | Specific | Net ve belirsizlik yok | | Measurable | Ölçülebilir outcome | | Testable | Test edilebilir | | Falsifiable | Yanlışlanabilir | | Relevant | İş hedefine uygun |
**Hypothesis:** Changing CTA button from blue to green
will increase click rate by 10%
**Metric:** CTA Click Rate
**Baseline:** 2.5%
**Target:** 2.75%
**Sample Size:** 10,000 users
**Duration:** 2 weeks
**Problem:** Users abandon during onboarding
**Hypothesis:** Adding progress indicator will reduce
abandonment by 20%
**Success Metric:** Onboarding completion rate
## Experiment: [Name]
### Hypothesis
[IF-THEN-BECAUSE statement]
### Variables
- Independent: [What we change]
- Dependent: [What we measure]
- Control: [What stays same]
### Metrics
- Primary: [Main KPI]
- Secondary: [Supporting metrics]
- Guardrail: [Safety metrics]
### Design
- Type: A/B / Multivariate
- Split: 50/50
- Duration: [X] weeks
### Analysis Plan
- Statistical test: [t-test, chi-square, etc.]
- Confidence level: 95%
- MDE: [Minimum detectable effect]
| Hypothesis | Impact | Confidence | Ease | Score | |------------|--------|------------|------|-------| | H1 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 7.0 | | H2 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 6.0 | | H3 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 7.7 |
ICE Score = (Impact + Confidence + Ease) / 3
Hypothesis Generation v1.1 - Enhanced
Kaynak: Stanford d.school Design Thinking
| Aşama | Doğrulama | |-------|-----------| | 1 | Hipotez yanlışlanabilir mi? (Her zaman doğruysa hipotez değildir) | | 2 | Sonuç ölçülebilir bir metrik mi (Click rate, Retention)? | | 3 | "Because" kısmı mantıklı bir kullanıcı davranışına dayanıyor mu? |
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