tjboudreaux/thinking-cynefin

Cynefin Framework

Overview

Cynefin (Dave Snowden) classifies a problem by the relationship between cause and effect, then prescribes the matching approach. Using the wrong approach for the domain is the failure mode: detailed planning is useless in chaos, and experimentation is reckless when a best practice already exists.

Core Principle: The nature of the problem determines the approach. Classify first, then act.

The Classifier

| Cause–effect is… | Domain | Approach | Do this | |------------------|--------|----------|---------| | Obvious to anyone | Clear | Sense → Categorize → Respond | Apply the known best practice / runbook; don't over-engineer | | Knowable with expertise/analysis | Complicated | Sense → Analyze → Respond | Investigate, profile, design; multiple valid solutions exist | | Only visible in retrospect (emergent) | Complex | Probe → Sense → Respond | Run small safe-to-fail probes, amplify what works | | Not perceivable; turbulent | Chaotic | Act → Sense → Respond | Act now to stabilize (rollback/failover), understand later | | Unsure which domain | Disorder | Decompose | Split into parts and classify each part |

Can you see clear cause→effect?
  obvious to everyone        → CLEAR
  knowable with analysis     → COMPLICATED
  only clear in hindsight    → COMPLEX
  totally turbulent, no time → CHAOTIC
  can't tell                 → DISORDER (decompose)

When to Use

• You're unsure whether to plan, analyze, experiment, or just act
• An approach isn't working and you suspect it's mismatched to the problem
• Triaging an incident (is this stabilize-first chaos, or analyzable?)

When NOT to Use

• The domain is already obvious and the approach is uncontested → skip the ceremony and just do it.
• You've already classified and now need to execute → switch to the domain's actual method (debugging, a hypothesis differential, experiment design); Cynefin only routes, it doesn't solve.
• The question is "what is the cause," not "how should I approach this" → classification won't find the bug.

The Common Mismatches (the whole point)

• Complex treated as Complicated: extensive planning, but outcomes keep surprising you. You can't analyze your way through emergence—probe instead.
• Complicated treated as Clear: "just do it like Company X" without understanding why. Context matters; analyze the specific case.
• Chaotic treated as Complex: running experiments during an active outage. Chaos needs immediate stability, not learning.
• Clear treated as Complicated: over-engineering a trivial problem. Apply the best practice and move on.

Confidence Check

Before committing, test the classification:

• Clear? Do best practices reliably work here? If not → probably Complicated.
• Complicated? Can analysis predict the outcome? If not → probably Complex.
• Complex? Can you run a safe-to-fail probe? If it's too turbulent to probe → Chaotic.
• Re-check as the situation evolves; domains shift (chaos stabilizes into complex/complicated).

Key Questions

• "What's the relationship between cause and effect here?"
• "Can experts reliably predict the outcome, or is it only clear in hindsight?"
• "Is this actually complex, or am I avoiding the analysis?"
• "Is this actually complicated, or am I over-planning a simple thing?"
• "Has the situation moved to a different domain since I last looked?"

Snowden's Wisdom

"Complex systems are dispositional, not causal—you can't predict what will happen, only influence what might." The failure is rarely the methodology itself; it's applying the wrong methodology to the wrong domain.