synapseradio/thinkies-calibrate-confidence

Follow these steps:

1. Identify the claim

Target: $ARGUMENTS, else recent assertions in the current context.

2. Name confidence explicitly

State the certainty level in concrete terms, distinguishing components if it varies:

• "Very confident (90%+), because…"
• "Moderately confident (60–80%), because…"
• "Uncertain (40–60%), due to…"
• "Low confidence (below 40%), because…"

3. Inventory the evidence

What does the confidence rest on?

• Direct experience or observation
• Documentation or authoritative sources
• Logical reasoning from established facts
• Inference or analogy
• Assumption without evidence

Assess how much is evidence-backed versus assumption.

4. Check for overconfidence

Definitive statements on limited data; uncertainty suppressed to sound authoritative; "obviously" / "clearly" without demonstration.

5. Check for underconfidence

Good evidence discounted; hedging from habit rather than need; excessive qualification of well-supported claims.

6. Test calibration

What odds would you accept betting on this? What evidence would change the level? Does past track record suggest over- or underconfidence?

7. Communicate uncertainty

Express confidence in proportion to evidence. Distinguish personal ignorance from collective uncertainty. Show where certainty ends and speculation begins.