stephenrogan/expansion-opportunity-scorer

Expansion Opportunity Scorer

Scores whether a customer account is ready for an expansion conversation and what type of expansion is most likely. The critical distinction: expansion readiness is not the same as expansion interest. A customer who mentions growth is interested. A customer with deep adoption, proven value, executive engagement, and budget availability is ready.

How to Use

Provide:

• Account name, current ARR, product tier, tenure
• The expansion signal (what triggered this assessment -- seat limit, feature request, new team interest, customer-initiated conversation)
• Adoption depth (feature breadth, usage intensity, active users vs. licensed seats)
• Value evidence (ROI confirmed, outcomes measured, customer-confirmed value)
• Stakeholder alignment (is the expansion champion the same as the economic buyer? Is the decision-maker engaged?)
• Health status (strong, healthy, at risk)
• Commercial context (budget cycle timing, pricing history, contract terms)
• Any blockers (open issues, unresolved concerns, competitive evaluation)

Expansion Types

| Type | Signal | Typical Value | Complexity | |------|--------|-------------|-----------| | Seat expansion | Licence utilisation >85%, new team forming, credential sharing | 10-30% ARR increase | Low -- straightforward addition | | Tier upgrade | Using features at the ceiling of current tier, requesting capabilities in higher tier | 20-50% ARR increase | Medium -- requires value justification for the price delta | | Cross-sell (new product) | Customer using one product and expressing needs addressed by another | 30-100% ARR increase | High -- requires new discovery, demo, and business case | | Usage expansion | Volume-based pricing and usage growing beyond current band | 10-25% ARR increase | Low-Medium -- data-driven conversation |

Readiness Scoring

Score each dimension 1-5:

| Dimension | 1 (Not Ready) | 3 (Developing) | 5 (Ready) | Weight | |-----------|-------------|----------------|----------|--------| | Adoption depth | Shallow usage, low feature breadth, many unused capabilities | Moderate usage, growing adoption | Deep usage, high breadth, users dependent on the product | 25% | | Value evidence | No ROI measured, value unproven | Data-derived value, not confirmed by customer | Customer-confirmed ROI, quantifiable outcomes | 25% | | Signal strength | No signal -- CSM-initiated assessment | Indirect signals (usage growth, feature requests) | Direct signal (customer asked about expansion, new team expressed interest) | 20% | | Stakeholder readiness | Decision-maker not engaged, no commercial relationship | Champion supportive, decision-maker aware but not engaged | Champion actively sponsoring, decision-maker engaged and budget-aware | 20% | | Health | At risk or declining | Healthy and stable | Strong and improving | 10% |

Composite readiness score = weighted sum (1.0-5.0)

| Score | Classification | Meaning | Action | |-------|---------------|---------|--------| | 1.0-2.0 | Not ready | Focus on adoption and value realisation before commercial conversations | Deepen adoption. Build value evidence. Revisit in 60-90 days | | 2.1-3.0 | Developing | Signals exist but foundation is not strong enough for a commercial conversation | Strengthen the weakest dimension. Prepare the ground over the next 30-60 days | | 3.1-4.0 | Ready | Foundation is strong. Time to initiate the expansion conversation | Build the commercial case. Engage the decision-maker. Propose the expansion | | 4.1-5.0 | High confidence | Customer is essentially asking for expansion. Execution risk only | Act this week. The conversation is warm. Delaying risks losing momentum or timing |

The Expansion Conversation Sequence

When readiness score is 3.1+:

Step 1: Confirm the Need (Consultative, Not Sales)

"I have noticed your team is approaching the seat limit / using features at the ceiling of your tier / expressing interest in [capability]. Can you tell me more about what is driving that?"

Why consultative: The CSM who listens to the need first and proposes second builds trust. The CSM who jumps to the upsell proposal loses the advisory position.

Step 2: Build the Case

Connect the expansion to the customer's stated goals, not to your revenue target.

| Frame | For the Champion | For the CFO | |-------|-----------------|-------------| | Seat expansion | "Your team has outgrown the current licence. 15 people sharing 10 seats means queuing and workarounds" | "At current usage, the cost per active user drops with additional seats. The productivity gain per seat exceeds the incremental cost" | | Tier upgrade | "The advanced features you have been requesting are available in the next tier and would address [specific workflow gap]" | "The tier upgrade adds [specific capabilities] at a [X]% price increase. Based on current usage, the ROI on the upgrade is [X]x" |

Step 3: Propose and Close

Specific, tied to their timeline, with a clear next step.

"Based on what you have shared, I recommend [specific expansion]. The annual cost would be EUR [X], bringing your total to EUR [Y]. Given your Q2 team growth, I would suggest we aim to have this in place by [date]. Can I put together a formal proposal?"

Blockers That Kill Expansion

| Blocker | Impact | Resolution Before Proposing | |---------|--------|---------------------------| | Unresolved support issue | Customer will not buy more from a vendor that has not fixed what they already bought | Resolve the issue first. Expansion after resolution feels earned | | Low adoption on current purchase | "Why would we buy more when we do not fully use what we have?" | Drive adoption first. Show them the value of what they already own | | No value evidence | The CFO will ask "what did we get from the last purchase?" and you cannot answer | Build the value case before the commercial case | | Decision-maker not engaged | The champion is ready but the person who approves the budget has never heard from you | Engage the decision-maker with value evidence before proposing expansion | | Competitive evaluation underway | The customer is evaluating whether to stay, not whether to grow | Resolve the competitive situation first. Expansion during evaluation is tone-deaf |

Output Format

## Expansion Assessment: [Account Name]
**Current ARR:** EUR [amount] | **Expansion type:** [type] | **Estimated value:** EUR [amount]

### Readiness Scores
| Dimension | Score | Evidence |
|-----------|-------|---------|
| Adoption depth | [1-5] | [data] |
| Value evidence | [1-5] | [data] |
| Signal strength | [1-5] | [data] |
| Stakeholder readiness | [1-5] | [data] |
| Health | [1-5] | [data] |

### Composite: [X.X] -- [Classification]

### Blockers
[Any blockers and resolution plan, or "None identified"]

### Recommended Approach
[Specific next action based on readiness level]

Quality Gates

• Is the signal real? A CSM projecting expansion hope onto a neutral account wastes commercial effort and risks the relationship. Verify the signal: did the customer indicate interest or are you interpreting usage data optimistically?
• Are blockers identified and addressed? Proposing expansion with an unresolved P1 ticket is self-sabotage
• Is the decision-maker identified and at least aware? An expansion proposal that reaches the champion but never reaches the budget holder stalls indefinitely
• Is the value case built? The expansion conversation is dramatically easier when you can say "your team saved X hours this quarter and the expansion would multiply that"

Principles

• Expansion is earned, not sold. A customer who sees deep value, has broad adoption, and trusts the CSM will expand naturally. A customer who is pushed to expand before value is proven will resist and resent
• Timing matters as much as readiness. A customer who is ready but in the middle of budget freeze will say no regardless of the score. Align with their budget cycle, not your quarter-end
• The CSM is not a salesperson. The CSM identifies the opportunity, builds the case, and initiates the conversation. If the expansion requires commercial negotiation, involve your sales counterpart at the right moment
• A customer who says "not now" is not saying "never." Document the signal, note the timing constraint, and revisit. The groundwork you laid makes the next conversation easier