robertguss/book-market-research

Market Research

Determine if a book is worth writing from a business perspective, specifically for Amazon KDP self-publishing.

Core Philosophy

Commercial viability is separate from intellectual merit. A brilliant idea can fail commercially. A mediocre idea can succeed. This skill assesses the market, not the idea itself.

Better to know the odds now. Authors deserve realistic expectations before investing months in writing.

Author intent shapes interpretation. A 5/10 viability score means different things to someone seeking income versus someone writing for legacy. Same data, different recommendations.

Claude does the analysis; human gathers the data Claude can't access. Claude performs qualitative research via web search. For quantitative data (BSR, prices, review counts), Claude provides a pre-filled spreadsheet and field guide—human gathers the numbers and brings them back.

Dependency Model

Standalone Mode: Book Concept Document only → pure commercial analysis. Claude flags that intellectual validation hasn't been done and recommends idea-validator if concerns arise.

Post-Validation Mode: Book Concept Document + Validation Report → integrated assessment. Combines intellectual merit with commercial viability for definitive pipeline gate.

Author Intent

Ask before researching. Author intent determines how to interpret the viability score.

| Intent | Description | Score Interpretation | | -------------------- | ---------------------------------------- | -------------------------------------------------- | | Income | Book must generate meaningful revenue | Score is decisive—low score means revise or kill | | Authority | Position as expert, book is a credential | Moderate score acceptable if positioning is strong | | Passion/Legacy | "This book needs to exist" | Low score = proceed with eyes open, not a blocker | | Lead Generation | Funnel for services/consulting | Score less critical if book serves the funnel | | Audience Service | Serving existing followers | Platform strength matters more than market size |

Session Modes

Quick Assessment (single session):

• Claude-only qualitative analysis via web search
• Identifies competitors, positioning gaps, review themes
• Produces preliminary viability assessment
• No manual data gathering required
• Best for: early-stage filtering, passion/legacy authors, authors with KDP experience

Deep Dive (multi-session):

• Full qualitative analysis PLUS quantitative data
• Claude provides pre-filled CSV with competitor URLs
• Human gathers BSR, prices, review counts from Amazon
• Claude analyzes completed data for full scorecard
• Best for: income-focused authors, competitive categories, first-time KDP authors

Claude recommends mode based on author intent, validation status, category competitiveness, and KDP experience.

Session Flow

Starting Research

1. Ask for Book Concept Document (and Validation Report if available)
2. Read carefully, note the core thesis and target reader
3. Ask about author intent (Income/Authority/Passion/Lead Gen/Audience Service)
4. Recommend session mode with reasoning
5. User confirms mode
6. Proceed to research

Quick Assessment Flow

1. Search for competing books in the category
2. Analyze search results for:
   • Competitor titles, authors, positioning
   • Bestseller badges (indicator of demand)
   • Publisher patterns (traditional vs. self-pub)
   • Review themes from Goodreads/snippets
3. Identify market gaps from complaint patterns
4. Assess author credibility fit
5. Produce preliminary Market Research Report

Deep Dive Flow

Phase 1: Qualitative Research

1. Perform Quick Assessment steps
2. Identify 5-8 key competitors for quantitative analysis
3. Generate pre-filled competitor-analysis.csv with:
   • Title, Author, Amazon URL (filled by Claude)
   • BSR, prices, reviews, rating, pages, KU status (for human to fill)
4. Provide Amazon Field Guide (see references/amazon-field-guide.md)
5. Output CSV file for user

Phase 2: Human Data Gathering

• User opens CSV in Excel/Sheets
• User visits each Amazon URL (~10 min for 5-8 books)
• User fills in the quantitative fields
• User uploads completed CSV

Phase 3: Quantitative Analysis

1. Parse completed CSV
2. Calculate market indicators:
   • Average BSR (demand signal)
   • Price range and median
   • Review velocity patterns
   • KU saturation
3. Score each criterion
4. Produce full Market Research Report with viability scorecard

Ending Any Session

1. Summarize what was accomplished
2. Output all documents as files
3. State clearly what comes next
4. If mid-Deep-Dive: remind about CSV and field guide

Viability Scorecard

| Criterion | Weight | What It Measures | | ---------------------- | ------ | ----------------------------------------------------------------------- | | Market Demand | 25% | Are people buying books in this space? BSR patterns, bestseller signals | | Review Landscape | 15% | Review counts/ratings, gap signals from complaints | | Competition Gap | 15% | Differentiation opportunity, positioning white space | | Author Credibility | 15% | Does author's background match the claims? | | Pricing Viability | 10% | Can price competitively and maintain margin? | | Author Platform | 10% | Existing audience for launch velocity | | Timing | 5% | Trend momentum vs. evergreen stability | | Production Feasibility | 5% | Can this realistically be written? |

Scoring: Each criterion rated 1-10. Weighted average produces overall score.

Score Interpretation

| Score | Label | Meaning | | ------- | ------------------ | --------------------------------------------- | | 7.0+ | Strong Go | Market conditions favor success | | 5.5–6.9 | Conditional Go | Viable with strategic adjustments | | 4.0–5.4 | Revise | Significant concerns—reposition or reconsider | | <4.0 | Kill | Market conditions unfavorable |

Intent Overlay:

• Income authors: Follow score literally
• Authority authors: Conditional Go sufficient if positioning is strong
• Passion authors: Even Kill score = "proceed with eyes open"
• Lead Gen authors: Platform fit matters more than raw score

Research Methods

Claude performs qualitative research via web search. See references/research-methods.md for detailed methodology.

What Claude CAN assess via search:

• Competitor titles, authors, positioning
• Bestseller badges (demand indicator)
• Publisher patterns
• Review themes and complaints
• Market gaps and opportunities
• Author credibility signals

What requires human data gathering:

• Best Sellers Rank (BSR)
• Exact prices (Kindle, paperback, hardcover)
• Review counts and star ratings
• Page counts
• Kindle Unlimited status
• Category rankings

For human data gathering, Claude provides a pre-filled CSV and the Amazon Field Guide from references/amazon-field-guide.md.

Market Research Report Structure

Use template from assets/templates/market-research-report.md.

1. Executive Summary — 2-3 sentences, overall assessment, recommendation
2. Author Intent & Interpretation — how intent shapes the recommendation
3. Viability Scorecard — weighted scores with reasoning
4. Competitive Landscape — top competitors, their positioning, gaps
5. Target Reader Analysis — refined reader persona, underserved needs
6. Positioning Recommendation — how to differentiate
7. Pricing Recommendation — based on market analysis
8. Title/Subtitle Direction — market-informed suggestions
9. Platform Fit Assessment — author's existing audience leverage
10. Timing Assessment — trend vs. evergreen
11. Key Risks — what could derail commercial success
12. Recommendation — Go / Conditional Go / Revise / Kill with reasoning

Handoff

To book-architect (if Go):

• Market Research Report
• Competitor Analysis (qualitative findings)
• Positioning and differentiation guidance

Back to idea-validator (if concerns):

• Flag if intellectual validation needed
• Specific concerns about claims or credibility

Back to book-ideation (if Revise):

• Specific repositioning suggestions
• Reader persona refinements

Scope Boundaries

This skill assesses commercial viability, not:

• Intellectual merit (that's idea-validator)
• Book structure (that's book-architect)
• Writing quality (that's the editing pipeline)

Commercial viability is necessary but not sufficient. A book can be commercially viable but intellectually weak, or intellectually strong but commercially doomed.