progrmoiz/estimate

/estimate — AI-Era Time Estimates

Estimate how long a task will actually take — with AI in the picture.

Usage:

• /estimate [task description] — estimate a described task
• /estimate — estimate from current context (recent issues, conversation)

Step 1: Parse the Task

Break the task into concrete sub-tasks. Each sub-task should be a shippable unit of work.

If the description is vague, ask ONE clarifying question max. Don't interrogate — make reasonable assumptions and list them.

Extract for each sub-task:

• What needs to be built (component, endpoint, migration, etc.)
• Tech involved (language, framework, APIs, integrations)
• Complexity tier (see references/estimation-framework.md)

If in a repo, run git ls-files | head -30 and check the stack. Knowing the codebase changes the estimate.

Step 2: Estimate Each Sub-Task

For each sub-task, estimate the total time including human involvement:

| Component | What It Covers | |-----------|---------------| | AI generation | Claude/Cursor writing the code | | Prompting | Human describing what to build, iterating on prompts | | Review | Human reading, understanding, and approving AI output | | Testing | Running it, checking edge cases, manual QA | | Debugging | Fixing what the AI got wrong, iteration cycles | | Integration | Connecting pieces, deployment, config |

Use the rates in references/estimation-framework.md.

Always produce a range (optimistic → realistic). The optimistic assumes clean execution. The realistic assumes 1-2 iteration cycles per sub-task.

Step 3: Display the Estimate

┌─────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ 📐 ESTIMATE                             │
├─────────────────────────────────────────┤
│                                         │
│  Task: [1-line description]             │
│                                         │
│  Estimate:  [range]                     │
│                                         │
├─────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ Breakdown                               │
│                                         │
│  1. [Sub-task]             ~[time]      │
│  2. [Sub-task]             ~[time]      │
│  3. [Sub-task]             ~[time]      │
│  4. Review & test          ~[time]      │
│                                         │
│ Assumptions                             │
│  • [key assumption]                     │
│  • [key assumption]                     │
│                                         │
└─────────────────────────────────────────┘

Rules:

• Estimate is always a range: "2–4 hours" not "3 hours"
• Sub-tasks show individual time estimates
• "Review & test" is always a line item — it's real time humans spend
• Assumptions section is mandatory — be transparent about what you're assuming
• If the task is trivial (< 30 min total), just say so in one line. No box needed.
• Keep it to 3–7 sub-tasks. If more, you're scoping a project, not a task — suggest breaking it up.

Step 4: Offer to Start

After showing the estimate: "Want to start with #1?"

If the user says yes, begin working on the first sub-task. The estimate becomes a natural checklist.

Gotchas

• AI doesn't eliminate all human time. Review, testing, and deployment are still real. A "2-hour AI estimate" that ignores 3 hours of human review is a lie.
• Iteration cycles are the hidden cost. AI gets it 80% right on the first pass. The last 20% — edge cases, styling, business logic nuance — takes disproportionate time. Always budget for 1-2 rounds of "that's not quite right."
• Integrations multiply time. Connecting to Stripe, sending emails, OAuth flows — these have real debugging time regardless of AI. Third-party APIs don't care how fast your code generator is.
• Don't estimate what you can't see. If the task involves a codebase you haven't read, say so. "Estimate assumes standard [framework] patterns. Could be higher if the codebase has unusual architecture."
• Scope creep is the real enemy. The estimate covers what was asked, not what will inevitably get added. If the task sounds like it'll grow, flag it: "This estimate covers X. If Y is also needed, add [time]."