paveg/trend-arbitrage

Trend Arbitrage Skill

Find "Volume: High / Difficulty: Low" gaps in any market and turn them into actionable content or product strategies. Based on the methodology of identifying demand-supply mismatches before competitors notice them.

Core Concept

Trend Arbitrage = Finding topics where search demand is growing but quality supply is scarce.

Three conditions must ALL be true:

1. Breakout — Search volume rising sharply in recent months
2. Information Gap — Top results are outdated, thin, or user-generated (Q&A sites, forums)
3. High Intent — Searchers want to solve a problem, buy something, or learn a specific skill

Initial Classification

Before starting any phase, use ask_user_input to classify the opportunity type unless the user has already made it clear. This determines which discovery methods, validation criteria, and strategy templates to use.

Always ask upfront:

1. What type of gap are you looking for?

   • Content gap (blog, newsletter, guide, course)
   • App/Tool gap (SaaS, utility, mobile app)
   • Service gap (consulting, subscription service, productized service)
   • Product gap (digital product, template, dataset, curated list)

2. What market or niche? (free text if not already specified)

3. What's your time horizon?

   • Quick win (launch in 1-2 weeks)
   • Medium play (1-3 months to build)
   • Long-term bet (3-12 months, bigger moat)

The answers shape every subsequent phase — discovery sources, validation criteria, strategy templates, and execution plans all differ by type.

Workflow Overview

The skill operates in 4 phases. Run them sequentially or jump to any phase.

CLASSIFY  →  Phase 1: DISCOVER  →  Phase 2: VALIDATE  →  Phase 3: STRATEGIZE  →  Phase 4: EXECUTE
(Ask type)   (Find signals)        (Confirm the gap)      (Design the play)       (Create the plan)

Read references/phases.md for the detailed procedure of each phase.

Phase 1: DISCOVER — Find Gap Signals

Goal: Generate a list of 5-10 candidate opportunities showing breakout signals.

Inputs: Determined by classification above. If anything is ambiguous, ask via ask_user_input.

Methods by type (use web_search for all):

Content gaps:

1. Google Trends exploration — rising queries in the niche
2. Community pain points — Reddit, forums, Q&A sites with repeated unanswered questions
3. Supply-side audit — search results dominated by outdated/thin content

App/Tool gaps:

1. "I wish there was an app for..." signals — Reddit, X/Twitter, Hacker News, Product Hunt comments
2. Existing tool complaints — App Store/Play Store reviews with recurring frustration patterns
3. Technology accessibility gaps — powerful tech (AI, APIs) that lacks a simple UI wrapper
4. Adjacent tool search — what tools exist in adjacent markets but not this one?

Service gaps:

1. Hiring pain signals — "looking for [role]" posts with complaints about cost/quality/speed
2. Process pain — "how do I [task]" where answers are complex and people clearly want someone to do it for them
3. Freelancer marketplace gaps — Fiverr/Upwork categories with low ratings or sparse supply

Product gaps:

1. Curation demand — "best [resources] for [niche]" with no definitive answer
2. Template/framework demand — "how to [process]" where a reusable template would save time
3. Data gaps — frequently asked questions requiring research that nobody has packaged

Output: A ranked table of candidates:

| # | Opportunity | Type | Signal Source | Trend Direction | Initial Assessment |
|---|-------------|------|--------------|-----------------|-------------------|
| 1 | ...         | App  | ...          | ↑↑ Breakout     | Promising         |

Phase 2: VALIDATE — Confirm the Gap Exists

Goal: For top 3 candidates from Phase 1, produce a quantified gap score.

Validation criteria shift by opportunity type:

For Content gaps:

Demand Score (1-5): Based on search volume and community interest Supply Score (1-5, inverted): Based on quality/freshness of existing content Intent Score (1-5): From casual browsing (1) to purchase-ready (5)

For App/Tool gaps:

Demand Score (1-5): Based on how many people are asking for this tool, workaround complexity Supply Score (1-5, inverted): Based on existing tools' quality, UX, and pricing gaps Feasibility Score (1-5): Can the user realistically build this? (replaces Intent for apps)

For Service gaps:

Demand Score (1-5): Based on hiring posts, freelancer marketplace activity, complaint volume Supply Score (1-5, inverted): Based on existing service providers' quality, speed, pricing Margin Score (1-5): Is the willingness-to-pay high enough for sustainable solo delivery?

For Product gaps:

Demand Score (1-5): Based on how often people search for / ask about this resource Supply Score (1-5, inverted): Does a good version of this product already exist? Packaging Score (1-5): How easily can scattered information be packaged into a sellable unit?

Arbitrage Score = Metric1 × Metric2 × Metric3 (max 125)

Produce a validation report. Read references/validation-template.md for the format.

Thresholds:

• Score ≥ 60: Strong GO — prioritize immediately
• Score 30-59: Conditional — worth pursuing if you have domain expertise
• Score < 30: PASS — not enough edge

Phase 3: STRATEGIZE — Design the Play

Goal: For each GO topic, create a concrete strategy.

Determine the optimal format based on the gap type:

| Gap Type | Best Format | Example | |----------|-------------|---------| | No comprehensive guide exists | Long-form article/guide | "Complete Guide to X" | | Info is scattered across forums | Curated resource list | "Internet Pipes" style | | Existing tools are too complex | Simple tool/template | PhotoAI model | | No localized version exists | Localized adaptation | JapanDrop-style newsletter | | Information changes frequently | Newsletter/subscription | Milk Road model | | People need ongoing help | Community or service | Designjoy model |

Strategy output must include:

1. Positioning statement: "For [audience] who [pain point], this is [format] that [unique value]"
2. Content angle: What specific angle differentiates from existing content
3. Monetization path: How this becomes revenue (ads, product, affiliate, service, subscription)
4. Competitive moat: Why copycats can't easily replicate (first-mover, curation quality, trust, community)
5. Effort estimate: Time to create MVP content/product
6. Success metrics: What to measure in the first 30/90 days

Phase 4: EXECUTE — Create the Action Plan

Goal: Produce a concrete, time-boxed execution plan the user can start today.

Output a week-by-week plan:

Week 1: Foundation

• Keyword list (primary + long-tail)
• Content outline or product spec
• Distribution channel selection

Week 2-3: Creation

• Content/product creation milestones
• Draft → Review → Publish pipeline

Week 4: Launch & Measure

• Distribution plan (SEO, social, community seeding)
• Metrics tracking setup
• Iteration triggers (when to double down vs pivot)

If the user's project context is known (e.g., JapanDrop, Tuck), tailor the execution plan to fit their existing infrastructure and tech stack.

Usage Modes

Quick scan: User says "find opportunities in [niche]" → Classify, then run Phase 1 only Full analysis: User says "analyze [specific topic/idea]" → Classify, then run Phase 2 + 3 End-to-end: User says "find and plan a new project" → Classify, then run all 4 phases Validation only: User says "is [topic/app idea] worth pursuing?" → Classify, then Phase 2 only Recon: User says "what gaps exist in [market]?" → Classify all 4 types, run Phase 1 across types

Important Principles

1. Data over intuition — Always ground recommendations in searchable evidence, not guesses
2. Be brutally honest — If a gap doesn't exist or is closing fast, say so clearly
3. Speed matters — Trend windows close. Bias toward actionable speed over perfect analysis
4. Localization is an edge — For Japanese market content targeting English speakers (or vice versa), cross-language gaps are often the richest arbitrage opportunities
5. AI content saturation — In 2025-2026, generic AI-written content floods mid-tier keywords. Focus on gaps requiring human curation, original research, or unique perspective

References

• references/phases.md — Detailed procedures for each phase
• references/validation-template.md — Gap validation report template
• references/examples.md — Real-world arbitrage case studies for pattern matching