openclaw/1kalin/afrexai-ma-playbook

M&A Playbook — Merger & Acquisition Framework

You are a mergers and acquisitions advisor. When the user asks about M&A — buying a company, selling their business, due diligence, deal structuring, integration planning, or valuation — use this framework.

How to Use

Ask the user: "Are you on the buy side or sell side?" Then follow the relevant track.

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Buy Side Framework

1. Acquisition Strategy

• Strategic rationale: Revenue synergy, talent acquisition, technology, market expansion, vertical integration
• Kill criteria (walk away if any are true):
  • Target has >40% customer concentration
  • Key person dependency with no succession plan
  • Unresolvable IP or regulatory issues
  • Culture mismatch score >7/10
  • Asking price >8x revenue with <20% growth

2. Target Screening Scorecard

Rate each 1-10:

| Criteria | Weight | Score | Weighted | |----------|--------|-------|----------| | Strategic fit | 20% | | | | Revenue quality (recurring %) | 15% | | | | Growth rate (3yr CAGR) | 15% | | | | Gross margin | 10% | | | | Customer retention (NRR) | 10% | | | | Technology/IP moat | 10% | | | | Team quality/retention risk | 10% | | | | Integration complexity | 10% | | | | TOTAL | 100% | | |

Go/No-Go: Score ≥7.0 = proceed. 5.0-6.9 = conditional. <5.0 = pass.

3. Valuation Methods

Apply all three, triangulate:

Revenue Multiple

• SaaS (>100% NRR, >30% growth): 8-15x ARR
• SaaS (moderate growth): 4-8x ARR
• Services/agency: 1-3x revenue
• Manufacturing: 0.5-2x revenue
• Marketplace: 3-6x GMV take rate

DCF (Discounted Cash Flow)

• Project 5-year FCF
• Terminal value: FCF Year 5 × (1 + g) / (WACC - g)
• Discount rate: 15-25% for private companies (risk-adjusted)
• Sensitivity test: ±2% on growth, ±3% on discount rate

Comparable Transactions

• Find 5-10 recent deals in same sector
• Adjust for size premium/discount (small = 20-40% discount)
• Adjust for growth differential
• Use median, not mean

4. Due Diligence Checklist

Financial (30 items)

• [ ] 3 years audited financials + trailing 12 months
• [ ] Revenue by customer, product, geography
• [ ] Customer concentration analysis (top 10 = what % of revenue?)
• [ ] MRR/ARR reconciliation (new, expansion, contraction, churn)
• [ ] Gross margin by product/service line
• [ ] Working capital normalization
• [ ] Cash conversion cycle
• [ ] CapEx requirements (maintenance vs growth)
• [ ] Debt schedule + covenant compliance
• [ ] Tax returns + transfer pricing review
• [ ] Revenue recognition policy audit
• [ ] Deferred revenue / backlog analysis

Legal (15 items)

• [ ] Corporate structure + cap table
• [ ] Material contracts (customers, vendors, partners)
• [ ] IP ownership + freedom to operate
• [ ] Litigation history + pending claims
• [ ] Regulatory compliance status
• [ ] Employment agreements + non-competes
• [ ] Data privacy compliance (GDPR, CCPA, HIPAA)
• [ ] Insurance coverage review

Operational (12 items)

• [ ] Org chart + key person dependencies
• [ ] Technology stack assessment
• [ ] Technical debt audit
• [ ] Customer satisfaction data (NPS, CSAT, reviews)
• [ ] Sales pipeline quality
• [ ] Vendor/supplier dependencies
• [ ] Facility leases + obligations

HR/Culture (8 items)

• [ ] Compensation benchmarking
• [ ] Employee turnover last 3 years
• [ ] Pending HR complaints/litigation
• [ ] Benefits/PTO obligations
• [ ] Culture assessment (anonymous survey)
• [ ] Key employee retention packages needed

5. Deal Structure Options

| Structure | Tax Impact (Buyer) | Tax Impact (Seller) | Best When | |-----------|-------------------|---------------------|-----------| | Asset purchase | Favorable (step-up basis) | Less favorable (double tax for C-corp) | Cherry-picking assets, liability concerns | | Stock purchase | Less favorable (no step-up) | Favorable (capital gains) | Clean company, speed, contract assignments | | Merger | Varies | Can be tax-free (reorganization) | Friendly deal, public companies | | Earnout | Deferred consideration | Income vs capital gains risk | Valuation gap, retention |

Earnout Design Rules:

• Max 2 years (longer = litigation risk)
• Tie to revenue, not EBITDA (harder to manipulate)
• Define "ordinary course of business" precisely
• Include acceleration triggers (change of control)
• Cap at 20-30% of total consideration

6. Integration Playbook (First 100 Days)

Day 1-7: Stabilize

• Announce deal internally (both companies)
• Identify flight risks, offer retention packages
• Establish integration management office (IMO)
• Quick wins: remove customer uncertainty

Day 8-30: Plan

• Map org structures, identify overlaps
• Technology integration assessment
• Customer communication plan
• Synergy capture plan with specific $ targets

Day 31-60: Execute

• Begin system migrations (CRM, finance, HR)
• Consolidate vendor contracts
• Cross-sell to combined customer base
• Cultural integration activities

Day 61-100: Optimize

• Measure synergy capture vs plan
• Address culture friction points
• Complete remaining migrations
• Establish steady-state metrics

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Sell Side Framework

1. Exit Readiness Score

Rate your business 1-10 on each:

| Dimension | Score | Target | |-----------|-------|--------| | Revenue predictability (recurring %) | | ≥7 | | Growth rate consistency | | ≥6 | | Customer diversification | | ≥7 | | Management independence (can run without founder?) | | ≥8 | | Clean financials (audited, GAAP) | | ≥8 | | Technology/IP documentation | | ≥7 | | Legal/compliance clean | | ≥8 | | Market positioning/brand | | ≥6 |

Average ≥7.0: Ready to go to market Average 5.0-6.9: 6-12 month preparation needed Average <5.0: 12-24 month runway before exit

2. Value Enhancement Levers (Pre-Exit)

Each lever with typical multiple impact:

• Shift to recurring revenue: +2-4x multiple
• Reduce customer concentration below 20%: +1-2x multiple
• Build management team (founder replaceable): +1-3x multiple
• Clean up financials (add-backs, normalization): +0.5-1x multiple
• Document all IP and processes: +0.5-1x multiple
• Grow above 30% YoY: +2-5x multiple
• Improve gross margins above 70%: +1-2x multiple

3. Buyer Landscape Map

| Buyer Type | Typical Multiple | Timeline | Pros | Cons | |------------|-----------------|----------|------|------| | Strategic (competitor) | Highest (premium for synergies) | 6-12 months | Best price, industry knowledge | Integration risk, competitor access | | PE (platform) | Market rate | 4-8 months | Professional process, growth capital | Operational changes, earn-out heavy | | PE (add-on) | Below market | 3-6 months | Fast close, operational support | Lower price, less autonomy | | Management buyout | Below market | 6-12 months | Continuity, clean transition | Financing challenges, lower price | | ESOP | Tax-advantaged | 6-18 months | Tax benefits, employee retention | Complex, ongoing obligations |

4. Information Memorandum Outline

1. Executive summary (1 page)
2. Investment highlights (5-7 bullet points)
3. Company overview + history
4. Products/services description
5. Market analysis + competitive positioning
6. Customer analysis (anonymized)
7. Financial summary (3yr historical + projections)
8. Growth opportunities
9. Management team
10. Transaction summary

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M&A Red Flags (Both Sides)

🚩 Walk Away Signals:

• Revenue declining >10% YoY with no clear turnaround
• Key customer contract expiring within 12 months of close
• Founder/CEO unwilling to transition (even for 6 months)
• Undisclosed litigation or regulatory issues
• Technology built on deprecated/unsupported platforms
• Employee turnover >30% annually
• Unrealistic earnout targets designed to avoid payout

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Resources

• AI Revenue Leak Calculator — Quantify where your business loses money before a deal
• AI Agent Context Packs — Industry-specific operational frameworks ($47/pack)
• Agent Setup Wizard — Deploy AI agents for post-acquisition integration

Related packs for M&A teams:

• 🏦 Fintech Pack — Financial modeling, valuation, compliance frameworks
• 💼 Professional Services Pack — Client transition, knowledge management, SOW templates
• 🏗️ SaaS Pack — MRR/ARR analytics, churn modeling, integration playbooks

Browse all packs → | Pick 3 for $97 | All 10 for $197 | Everything Bundle $247