microclaw/propagation-trace

Propagation Trace

Reconstruct the propagation chain of a "new thing" (news, rumor, meme, claim, product launch, trending topic): where it started, when it appeared, and how it spread. This is an investigation method layered on the web_search and web_fetch tools — not a single command.

Goal

Produce a chronological chain of nodes:

origin → early amplifiers → mainstream pickup → current state

Each node should carry: source name, URL, timestamp (as exact as available), and what that source added (original claim, quote, correction, debunk, etc.).

Method

1. Pin down the claim. Restate the exact thing being traced in one sentence. If it's vague ("that AI thing everyone's talking about"), use clarify or ask the user for a distinguishing phrase, name, or quote before searching.

2. Broad search for the canonical phrasing. Run web_search with the most quotable, specific string (an exact quote, a unique name, a number). Distinctive phrases surface the origin faster than generic keywords.

3. Walk backwards in time to the origin. Re-search with date-narrowing terms and the earliest-looking sources. Add qualifiers like "first reported", "originally", "según", "最早", the year, or before:<date>-style phrasing. The earliest credible source that is not citing someone else is the candidate origin.

4. Fetch and verify each candidate node. Use web_fetch on the actual URLs — do not trust search snippets alone. Confirm:

   • the publish/post timestamp (look in the page text, not just the search result),
   • whether the source is originating the claim or citing another source (follow the citation upstream),
   • the exact wording, since claims mutate as they spread.

5. Map the spread forward. From the origin, identify who amplified it and in what order: secondary outlets, aggregators, social platforms, mainstream press. Note where the claim changed, got exaggerated, or was corrected/debunked.

6. Assemble the chain. Order nodes by timestamp. Mark gaps and uncertainty explicitly.

Output format

Present a compact timeline, then a one-line assessment:

PROPAGATION CHAIN: <the thing>

1. [YYYY-MM-DD] Origin — <source>, <url>
   "<original claim/quote>"
2. [YYYY-MM-DD] <source>, <url> — <what changed / what it added>
3. ...

ASSESSMENT: <single origin or multiple? how confident? any mutation/debunk along the way?>

Guidance

• Distinguish origin from amplifier. A high-traffic outlet is often not the origin — follow "according to" / "as first reported by" links upstream until you reach a source that isn't citing anyone.
• Timestamps are the spine. Prefer machine-readable dates from the page over fuzzy search-snippet dates. If a source has no reliable timestamp, say so rather than guessing its position in the chain.
• Watch for mutation. The wording at the origin and the wording now are frequently different. Quote both when they diverge.
• Be honest about gaps. Web search cannot see private/deleted posts or paywalled archives. State what you could not verify instead of inventing a clean chain.
• Don't overclaim causation. "Appeared earlier" is not proof of "caused the spread." Describe the observed order; flag inferences as inferences.
• Stop when it converges. Once multiple independent backward searches keep landing on the same earliest source, treat that as the origin and stop.