mattgierhart/prd-v09-launch-metrics

Launch Metrics

Position in workflow: v0.9 GTM Strategy → v0.9 Launch Metrics → v0.9 Feedback Loop Setup

Consumes

This skill requires prior work from v0.3-v0.9:

• KPI-* outcome entries from v0.3 (from v0.3 Outcome Definition) — Baseline KPI- entries define success metrics for the product; launch-specific KPI- entries are calibrated variants
• GTM-* campaign specifications (from v0.9 GTM Strategy) — GTM channels inform launch-specific KPI- tracking (e.g., Product Hunt channel → KPI for PH-originated signups); timeline defines metric collection windows (Day 1, Day 7, Day 30, Day 90)
• BR-* product type (from v0.2 Product Type Classification) — Product type (Clone/Unbundle/Undercut/Slice/Innovation) determines metric targets and benchmarks (Fast Follow = higher activation expected, lower retention)
• CFD-* market benchmarks (from v0.1-v0.2 research) — Competitive analysis and market data inform realistic KPI- targets (e.g., "developer tools average 30-50% activation")
• DEP-* deployment infrastructure (from v0.8 Release Planning) — Deployment baselines from staging inform KPI- thresholds (e.g., error rate baseline → activation threshold)
• MON-* monitoring setup (from v0.8 Monitoring Setup) — Infrastructure metrics (latency, error rate) inform KPI- dashboards and alert conditions during launch

This skill assumes GTM- entries are complete and tracking infrastructure is configured.

Produces

This skill creates/updates:

• KPI-* launch-specific entries (launch metrics with targets and thresholds) — Funnel metrics (Reach → Acquisition → Activation → Retention → Revenue → Referral) with Day 1/7/30/90 targets, action thresholds (Red/Yellow/Green), and channel attribution
• Launch dashboard specification — Visual layout and refresh rate for real-time launch monitoring; links KPI- to MON- infrastructure
• Metric tracking schema — Event definitions and tracking setup for conversion funnel

All KPI- entries for launch are measurement specifications, not confidence-based. They are:

• Actionable (Red/Yellow/Green thresholds trigger specific responses)
• Calibrated (targets account for product type and market benchmarks from CFD-)
• Traceable (each KPI- links to GTM- channels and v0.3 baseline KPI-XX)
• Measurable (specific event tracking, data sources, calculation formulas)
• Time-bound (explicit timeframes: Day 1, Week 1, Month 1)

Example KPI- entries:

KPI-101: Website Visitors (Launch Week)
Tier: Tier 3 (Leading)
Category: Reach
Stage: Launch (v0.9)
Owner: Growth Team

Definition: Unique visitors to marketing website from all GTM- channels
Unit: count
Source: Google Analytics 4 / Plausible

Targets:
  Day 1: 5,000 (from GTM-002 PH expectations + GTM-007 paid channel)
  Day 7: 25,000 (cumulative from all GTM channels)
  Day 30: 50,000 (post-launch momentum)
  Day 90: 100,000

Evidence: CFD-025 (competitor benchmarks show 5-10% market awareness for Fast Follow), CFD-008 (our GTM reach model projects this based on channel scale)
Product Type Calibration: Fast Follow — higher reach expected due to known category

Tracking:
  Dashboard: Launch Dashboard > Reach panel
  Alert: <1,000 on Day 1 (channel distribution problem)

Action Thresholds:
  Red: <2,500 Day 7 (channel underperformance)
  Yellow: <20,000 Day 7 (80% of target)
  Green: >25,000 Day 7

GTM Connection: GTM-002 (Product Hunt), GTM-007 (Website), GTM-008 (Paid ads), GTM-010 (Email)
v0.3 KPI Link: N/A (launch-specific)

---

KPI-102: Trial Signups
Tier: Tier 2 (Conversion)
Category: Acquisition
Stage: Launch (v0.9)
Owner: Product Team

Definition: Completed signup flow (email verified, profile created)
Unit: count
Source: Application database + Mixpanel

Targets:
  Day 1: 500 (5-10% conversion from reach)
  Day 7: 2,000 (extrapolated from Day 1 + momentum)
  Day 30: 5,000 (post-launch plateau)
  Day 90: 15,000 (month 3 growth)

Evidence: CFD-030 (developer SaaS benchmarks show 5-10% landing-to-signup), CFD-031 (our onboarding tested with 8% conversion)
Product Type Calibration: Fast Follow = 8-10% expected (higher than average because users understand category)

Tracking:
  Event: signup_completed { source, campaign_id, user_segment }
  Dashboard: Launch Dashboard > Acquisition panel
  Alert: Conversion rate <5%

Action Thresholds:
  Red: <100 Day 1 (messaging/channel mismatch — escalate GTM)
  Yellow: <400 Day 1 (funnel friction — investigate landing page)
  Green: >500 Day 1

GTM Connection: GTM-002, GTM-004 (Landing Page), GTM-005 (Email), GTM-008 (Ads)
v0.3 KPI Link: KPI-001 (Trial Signups baseline from Outcome Definition)

---

KPI-103: Activation Rate (First Value Achievement)
Tier: Tier 1 (Critical)
Category: Activation
Stage: Launch (v0.9)
Owner: Product Team

Definition: % of signups who complete first core action (generate code suggestion) within 24h
Unit: percentage
Source: Mixpanel + Application events

Targets:
  Day 1: 40% (from CFD-035 developer tool benchmarks)
  Day 7: 45% (slight improvement with onboarding refinement)
  Day 30: 50% (post-launch optimizations)
  Day 90: 55% (mature product experience)

Evidence: CFD-035 (activation benchmarks for dev tools: 30-50%), CFD-015 (our UJ-001 usability test showed 45% completed core action)
Product Type Calibration: Fast Follow = higher baseline (users already understand AI coding assists)

Tracking:
  Event: first_value_achieved { user_id, action_type, time_to_value_seconds }
  Dashboard: Launch Dashboard > Activation panel
  Alert: Drops below 30% (onboarding broken)

Action Thresholds:
  Red: <25% (product experience broken — pause marketing, investigate UJ-001)
  Yellow: <35% (friction in onboarding — iterate SCR-001/002)
  Green: >45% (strong PMF signal)

GTM Connection: Quality indicator for all GTM- channels (tells us if messaging matches product)
v0.3 KPI Link: KPI-002 (Activation Rate from Outcome Definition)

---

KPI-104: Day 7 Retention
Tier: Tier 1 (Critical)
Category: Retention
Stage: Launch (v0.9)
Owner: Product Team

Definition: % of Day 0 signups who return and take an action on Day 7
Unit: percentage
Source: Mixpanel cohort analysis

Targets:
  Day 7: 25% (from CFD-040 B2B SaaS benchmarks)
  Day 30: 20% of original (cohort retention)
  Day 90: 15% of original (monthly cohort)

Evidence: CFD-040 (B2B SaaS D7 retention benchmarks 20-30%), CFD-015 (our beta test: 22% D7 retention with 50 users)
Product Type Calibration: Fast Follow = critical (users can easily switch back to competitors) — retention signal validates PMF

Tracking:
  Event: session_start { user_id, cohort_day }
  Dashboard: Launch Dashboard > Retention panel
  Alert: Day 7 retention <15% (fundamental problem)

Action Thresholds:
  Red: <15% (product-market fit issue — consider pivot in features, messaging)
  Yellow: <20% (value delivery problem — investigate UJ-/feature completeness)
  Green: >30% (strong retention, ready for growth)

GTM Connection: Quality indicator for all GTM- channels
v0.3 KPI Link: KPI-003 (Retention Rate from Outcome Definition)

Core Concept: Metrics as North Star

Launch metrics are not vanity numbers—they are decision criteria. Each metric should answer: "Is this working? Should we double down or pivot?" If a metric doesn't inform action, don't track it.

Metric Layers for Launch

| Layer | What to Measure | Timeframe | |-------|-----------------|-----------| | Reach | How many saw us | Day 0-7 | | Acquisition | How many signed up | Day 0-30 | | Activation | How many got value | Day 1-14 | | Retention | How many came back | Week 2-4 | | Revenue | How many paid | Week 2-8 | | Referral | How many shared | Week 3+ |

Execution

1. Review v0.3 Outcome Definition KPIs

   • What KPI- entries exist from v0.3?
   • Which are most relevant for launch?
   • What launch-specific metrics are needed?

2. Define launch-specific metrics

   • Channel performance (per GTM-)
   • Funnel progression
   • Activation milestones
   • Early retention signals

3. Set targets per timeframe

   • Day 1, Day 7, Day 30, Day 90
   • Tie to product type expectations (from v0.2 BR-)

4. Configure tracking infrastructure

   • Analytics platforms
   • Event schemas
   • Dashboard setup

5. Create visibility

   • Daily launch dashboard
   • Weekly metrics review
   • Automated alerts for thresholds

6. Create/Update KPI- entries for launch

KPI- Output Template (Launch Variant)

KPI-XXX: [Launch Metric Name]
Tier: [Tier 1 | Tier 2 | Tier 3]
Category: [Reach | Acquisition | Activation | Retention | Revenue | Referral]
Stage: Launch (v0.9)
Owner: [Who monitors this metric]

Definition: [Exact calculation formula]
Unit: [count | percentage | currency | ratio]
Source: [Where data comes from]

Targets:
  Day 1: [target]
  Day 7: [target]
  Day 30: [target]
  Day 90: [target]

Evidence: [CFD-XXX or benchmark that justifies targets]
Product Type Calibration: [How product type affects expectations]

Tracking:
  Event: [analytics event name if applicable]
  Dashboard: [Where to view this metric]
  Alert: [When to get notified]

Action Thresholds:
  Red: [Below this = urgent intervention]
  Yellow: [Below this = investigate]
  Green: [Above this = on track]

GTM Connection: [GTM-XXX channels this measures]
v0.3 KPI Link: [KPI-YYY from Outcome Definition if applicable]

Example KPI- entries:

KPI-101: Website Visitors (Launch Week)
Tier: Tier 3 (Leading)
Category: Reach
Stage: Launch (v0.9)
Owner: Growth Team

Definition: Unique visitors to marketing site
Unit: count
Source: Google Analytics / Plausible

Targets:
  Day 1: 5,000
  Day 7: 25,000
  Day 30: 50,000
  Day 90: 100,000

Evidence: CFD-025 (competitor launch benchmarks)
Product Type Calibration: Fast Follow = higher baseline expected

Tracking:
  Event: page_view (landing pages)
  Dashboard: Launch Dashboard > Reach panel
  Alert: <1,000 on Day 1

Action Thresholds:
  Red: <2,500 Day 7 (50% of target)
  Yellow: <20,000 Day 7 (80% of target)
  Green: >25,000 Day 7

GTM Connection: GTM-002 (Product Hunt), GTM-007 (Website)
v0.3 KPI Link: N/A (launch-specific)

KPI-102: Trial Signups
Tier: Tier 2 (Conversion)
Category: Acquisition
Stage: Launch (v0.9)
Owner: Product Team

Definition: Completed signup flow (email verified)
Unit: count
Source: Application database + Mixpanel

Targets:
  Day 1: 500
  Day 7: 2,000
  Day 30: 5,000
  Day 90: 15,000

Evidence: CFD-030 (industry signup rate benchmarks 5-10%)
Product Type Calibration: Fast Follow = 8-10% expected conversion

Tracking:
  Event: signup_completed
  Dashboard: Launch Dashboard > Acquisition panel
  Alert: Conversion rate <5%

Action Thresholds:
  Red: <100 Day 1 (messaging/channel mismatch)
  Yellow: <400 Day 1 (funnel friction)
  Green: >500 Day 1

GTM Connection: GTM-002, GTM-004 (Landing Page)
v0.3 KPI Link: KPI-001 (Trial Signups, general)

KPI-103: Activation Rate (First Value)
Tier: Tier 1 (Critical)
Category: Activation
Stage: Launch (v0.9)
Owner: Product Team

Definition: % of signups who complete first value action within 24h
Unit: percentage
Source: Mixpanel + Application events

First Value Action: Complete first [core action - e.g., generate code suggestion]

Targets:
  Day 1: 40%
  Day 7: 45%
  Day 30: 50%
  Day 90: 55%

Evidence: CFD-035 (activation benchmarks for dev tools 30-50%)
Product Type Calibration: Fast Follow = higher baseline (users know the category)

Tracking:
  Event: first_value_achieved
  Dashboard: Launch Dashboard > Activation panel
  Alert: Drops below 30%

Action Thresholds:
  Red: <25% (onboarding broken)
  Yellow: <35% (friction points)
  Green: >45%

GTM Connection: Measures effectiveness of all GTM- channels
v0.3 KPI Link: KPI-002 (Activation Rate, general)

KPI-104: Day 7 Retention
Tier: Tier 1 (Critical)
Category: Retention
Stage: Launch (v0.9)
Owner: Product Team

Definition: % of Day 0 signups who return on Day 7
Unit: percentage
Source: Mixpanel cohort analysis

Targets:
  Day 7: 25%
  Day 30: 20% (of Day 0)
  Day 90: 15% (of Day 0)

Evidence: CFD-040 (B2B SaaS retention benchmarks)
Product Type Calibration: Fast Follow = retention critical (easy to switch back)

Tracking:
  Event: session_start (Day 7 cohort)
  Dashboard: Launch Dashboard > Retention panel
  Alert: Day 7 retention <15%

Action Thresholds:
  Red: <15% (critical product-market fit issue)
  Yellow: <20% (value delivery problem)
  Green: >30% (strong PMF signal)

GTM Connection: Quality indicator for all GTM- traffic
v0.3 KPI Link: KPI-003 (Retention Rate, general)

The Launch Funnel

Track conversion at each stage:

REACH → ACQUISITION → ACTIVATION → RETENTION → REVENUE → REFERRAL
 100%      10%           50%          25%        20%       10%

| Stage | Key Metric | Benchmark | |-------|------------|-----------| | Reach → Acquisition | Signup Rate | 5-15% | | Acquisition → Activation | Activation Rate | 30-60% | | Activation → Retention | D7 Retention | 20-40% | | Retention → Revenue | Conversion Rate | 2-10% | | Revenue → Referral | NPS / Referral Rate | 10-30% |

Product Type Calibration

Expectations vary by product type (from v0.2 BR-):

| Product Type | Acquisition | Activation | Retention | Revenue | |--------------|-------------|------------|-----------|---------| | Fast Follow | High (known category) | High (familiar UX) | Medium (easy to switch) | Quick | | Slice | Medium (niche) | High (focused value) | High (workflow fit) | Medium | | Innovation | Low (education needed) | Low (learning curve) | High (if activated) | Slow |

Tracking Infrastructure Checklist

| Component | Purpose | Tool Examples | |-----------|---------|---------------| | Product Analytics | User behavior | Mixpanel, Amplitude, PostHog | | Web Analytics | Traffic, sources | GA4, Plausible, Fathom | | Event Tracking | Specific actions | Segment, custom events | | Error Tracking | Failures, issues | Sentry, LogRocket | | Session Recording | User experience | Hotjar, FullStory | | A/B Testing | Experiments | LaunchDarkly, Statsig |

Event Schema for Launch

Define standard events for launch tracking:

# Acquisition Events
signup_started: { source, campaign, referrer }
signup_completed: { source, campaign, user_id }
signup_abandoned: { step, source, reason }

# Activation Events
onboarding_started: { user_id }
onboarding_step_completed: { user_id, step }
first_value_achieved: { user_id, action, time_to_value }

# Engagement Events
feature_used: { user_id, feature, context }
session_start: { user_id, day_number }
session_end: { user_id, duration }

# Conversion Events
upgrade_started: { user_id, plan }
payment_completed: { user_id, plan, amount }

Launch Dashboard Layout

┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ LAUNCH DASHBOARD                    Last updated: [time]    │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ REACH          │ ACQUISITION     │ ACTIVATION              │
│ Visitors: X    │ Signups: Y      │ Activated: Z%           │
│ Target: X      │ Target: Y       │ Target: Z%              │
│ [trend chart]  │ [trend chart]   │ [trend chart]           │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ RETENTION      │ REVENUE         │ CHANNELS                │
│ D7: X%         │ MRR: $Y         │ Product Hunt: X         │
│ Target: X%     │ Target: $Y      │ Direct: Y               │
│ [cohort chart] │ [revenue chart] │ [breakdown chart]       │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘

Anti-Patterns

| Pattern | Signal | Fix | |---------|--------|-----| | Vanity metrics only | Tracking visitors but not activation | Focus on funnel progression | | No targets | "We got 1000 signups!" (is that good?) | Set explicit targets per timeframe | | Lagging only | Only tracking revenue | Add leading indicators (activation) | | No action thresholds | Metrics exist but no response plan | Define red/yellow/green zones | | Over-instrumentation | 200 events, can't find signal | Focus on 10-15 key events | | No attribution | Don't know which channel works | Track source for all signups |

Quality Gates

Before proceeding to Feedback Loop Setup:

• [ ] Launch funnel metrics defined (Reach → Referral)
• [ ] Targets set for Day 1, Day 7, Day 30
• [ ] Tracking infrastructure configured
• [ ] Launch dashboard created and accessible
• [ ] Action thresholds defined for critical metrics
• [ ] KPI- entries link to GTM- channels
• [ ] Product type calibration applied to targets

Downstream Connections

| Consumer | What It Uses | Example | |----------|--------------|---------| | Feedback Loop Setup | KPI- thresholds trigger feedback collection | KPI-103 <30% → investigate with CFD- | | Daily Standup | KPI- dashboard for launch status | "Activation at 42%, on track" | | Pivot Decisions | KPI- data informs strategy | KPI-104 <15% → fundamental problem | | Investor Updates | KPI- for launch performance | "Day 30: 5000 signups, 45% activated" | | v1.0 Planning | KPI- baselines for growth targets | KPI-102 baseline → 10% MoM growth |

Detailed References

• Metric definition examples: See references/metric-examples.md
• KPI- entry template: See assets/kpi-launch-template.md
• Dashboard design guide: See references/dashboard-design.md
• Event schema examples: See references/event-schema.md