mathews-tom/market-analyzer

Market Analyzer

Produces structured market analysis reports: sizes the addressable market using top-down and bottom-up methods, identifies growth trajectories and adoption stages, segments customers, and assesses timing. Every estimate cites a data source or states its assumption explicitly.

Reference Files

| File | Contents | Load When | | ------------------------------ | ------------------------------------------------------------------ | --------- | | references/tam-sam-som.md | TAM/SAM/SOM definitions, calculation formulas, common mistakes | Always | | references/trend-analysis.md | Trend categorization framework, adoption lifecycle, timing signals | Always | | references/market-sizing.md | Data sources, estimation techniques, confidence framework | Always |

Prerequisites

• Product, feature, or business idea description
• Target geography (default: global)
• Target customer segment (if known)

Workflow

Phase 1: Input Understanding

1. Classify the input — Determine whether the subject is a product idea, feature, market category, or industry vertical.
2. Extract key attributes:
   • Target customer profile
   • Value proposition or core problem solved
   • Geography and regulatory jurisdiction
   • Price range or monetization model (if known)
   • Competitive alternatives
3. Clarify gaps — If critical context is missing (target customer, geography, or value proposition), ask 3-5 targeted clarifying questions before proceeding.

Phase 2: Market Research

Use WebSearch to gather quantitative market data:

1. Industry reports — Search for market size reports from Statista, Grand View Research, Fortune Business Insights, IBISWorld, and similar aggregators.
2. Growth rates — Identify CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate) for the relevant market and adjacent segments.
3. Funding signals — Search Crunchbase, PitchBook coverage, and venture capital trends in the space.
4. Consumer trends — Google Trends data, social media volume, and news sentiment.
5. Academic research — Search Semantic Scholar for relevant market studies, adoption research, and behavioral economics papers.
6. Government/public data — Census Bureau, BLS, World Bank, OECD datasets for demographic and economic baselines.

For each data point, record the source, publication date, and methodology (if available).

Phase 3: TAM/SAM/SOM Calculation

Apply both estimation approaches and cross-validate:

Top-down (from total industry):

TAM = Total industry revenue or total potential buyers x average revenue per buyer
SAM = TAM x % addressable by geography, segment, and channel
SOM = SAM x realistic capture rate (year 1-3)

Bottom-up (from unit economics):

Reachable customers = Identified target accounts or users in reachable channels
SOM = Reachable customers x conversion rate x average revenue per customer
SAM = SOM scaled to full serviceable segment (remove channel constraints)
TAM = SAM scaled to total market (remove geographic/segment constraints)

Cross-validate the two approaches. If they diverge by more than 3x, investigate the discrepancy and document the reason.

Phase 4: Trend and Timing Assessment

Evaluate four dimensions:

1. Market growth trajectory — Classify as emerging (pre-revenue), growing (CAGR > 10%), mature (CAGR 0-5%), or declining (negative CAGR).
2. Technology adoption stage — Map to Rogers curve: innovators (< 2.5%), early adopters (2.5-16%), early majority (16-50%), late majority (50-84%), laggards (> 84%).
3. Regulatory environment — Identify tailwinds (subsidies, mandates) and headwinds (restrictions, compliance costs).
4. Macro trends — Economic conditions, demographic shifts, technological enablers that accelerate or hinder the market.

Phase 5: Customer Segmentation

Identify 2-5 distinct customer segments:

• Demographics — Age, income, geography, company size (B2B)
• Behavioral — Usage patterns, purchase triggers, switching costs
• Willingness to pay — Price sensitivity signals, competitive pricing data
• Segment sizing — Estimated size and growth rate per segment

Phase 6: Report Generation

Produce the structured output below.

Output Format

## Market Analysis: {Subject}

### Executive Summary
**Market Opportunity Score: {1-5}/5**
{2-3 sentence summary of the opportunity, key market size, and timing assessment.}

### TAM / SAM / SOM

| Level | Value | Methodology | Confidence |
|-------|-------|-------------|------------|
| TAM | ${amount} | {Top-down / Bottom-up / Both} | {High/Medium/Low} |
| SAM | ${amount} | {methodology summary} | {High/Medium/Low} |
| SOM (Year 1) | ${amount} | {methodology summary} | {High/Medium/Low} |
| SOM (Year 3) | ${amount} | {methodology summary} | {High/Medium/Low} |

**Top-down calculation:**
{Step-by-step derivation with sources}

**Bottom-up calculation:**
{Step-by-step derivation with sources}

**Cross-validation:**
{Comparison of approaches, explanation of any divergence}

### Market Trends

| Dimension | Assessment | Evidence |
|-----------|-----------|----------|
| Growth trajectory | {Emerging/Growing/Mature/Declining} | {CAGR, data source} |
| Adoption stage | {Innovators/Early Adopters/Early Majority/Late Majority} | {penetration %, signal} |
| Regulatory | {Tailwind/Neutral/Headwind} | {specific regulation or policy} |
| Macro trends | {Favorable/Mixed/Unfavorable} | {key trend} |

### Customer Segments

| Segment | Size | Growth | WTP Signal | Priority |
|---------|------|--------|------------|----------|
| {name} | {size} | {rate} | {signal} | {Primary/Secondary/Tertiary} |

### Key Risks and Assumptions

| # | Assumption | Impact if Wrong | Confidence |
|---|-----------|-----------------|------------|
| 1 | {assumption} | {impact} | {High/Medium/Low} |

### Data Quality Assessment

| Data Point | Source | Date | Quality |
|-----------|--------|------|---------|
| {metric} | {source} | {date} | {Verified/Estimated/Extrapolated} |

### Recommendation
{1-2 paragraphs: proceed/pivot/investigate further, with specific next steps.}

Scoring Criteria: Market Opportunity Score

| Score | Meaning | Criteria | | ----- | ----------- | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | | 5 | Exceptional | Large TAM (> $10B), growing (> 15% CAGR), early adoption stage, regulatory tailwinds | | 4 | Strong | Large TAM or high growth, favorable timing, manageable competition | | 3 | Moderate | Mid-size market, moderate growth, competitive but differentiation possible | | 2 | Challenging | Small or saturated market, mature stage, significant headwinds | | 1 | Unfavorable | Declining market, regulatory barriers, limited differentiation |

Quality Rules

1. Every number needs a source. Cite the report, database, or methodology used. If no source exists, label the estimate as "Author extrapolation" and state the assumption chain.
2. Distinguish data from extrapolation. Use the Data Quality Assessment table to make this explicit for every key metric.
3. Confidence levels are mandatory. Each TAM/SAM/SOM figure carries a confidence rating with rationale.
4. Cross-validate estimates. Run both top-down and bottom-up. If only one approach is feasible, state why and reduce confidence.
5. Date your data. Market data older than 3 years gets a lower confidence rating. Flag any pre-2022 data explicitly.
6. No vanity TAMs. The TAM must be genuinely addressable by the product category, not inflated by including tangential markets.

Error Handling

| Problem | Resolution | | ----------------------------------- | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | | No market data available | Use proxy markets and analogies. State the proxy explicitly. Reduce confidence to Low. | | Input too vague to size | Ask clarifying questions (target customer, geography, price point) before proceeding. | | Conflicting data sources | Present both figures, explain the discrepancy, use the more conservative estimate. | | Market is too new for reliable data | Size the adjacent market the product displaces. Note the nascent stage. | | User wants a single TAM number | Provide the range (conservative to optimistic) with the methodology behind each bound. |

When NOT to Analyze

Push back if:

• The request is for financial projections or revenue forecasting (different skill domain)
• The request is for pricing strategy or competitive positioning (strategy, not analysis)
• The market definition is so broad it has no analytical value ("the internet economy")
• The user has not defined what the product or idea actually does