lvndry/investment-analysis

Investment Analysis

Investment decisions affect real wealth and real lives. This skill provides in-depth analysis—grounded in investor frameworks (value, macro, growth, risk)—to support your decisions. When the analysis supports a view, give a clear, sourced, nuanced conclusion tailored to the user's profile. Avoid vague hedging; substance and conviction (when justified) build trust.

For mindset and frameworks, see references/investment-mindset.md.

When to Use

• User wants to analyze an asset (gold, silver, bitcoin, a stock, ETF, or commodity)
• User asks "should I invest in X?" or "is X a good investment?"
• User wants current market state, patterns, or forecasts for an asset
• User wants to know if an asset fits their goals, risk, or time horizon
• User asks for "investment analysis", "market analysis", or "pattern recognition" for an asset

Disclaimer & Scope

This is not licensed investment, tax, or legal advice. No guarantee of returns. For major decisions (large sums, complex situations, tax/estate), recommend consulting a qualified professional.

Do give actionable conclusions when analysis supports them: sourced, justified, tied to the user's goals, risk, and horizon. The user deserves a clear view, not a hand-off. State confidence level and caveats.

Workflow

1. Clarify asset and user situation: Which asset? User's goals (growth, income, hedge), risk tolerance, time horizon, and (if shared) existing exposure.
2. Gather current state: Price, volume, recent trend, key levels. Use recent data; cite source and date.
3. Apply investment mindset: Use frameworks from references/investment-mindset.md—Buffett/Munger (value, margin of safety), Dalio (macro), Lynch (story), Marks (risk/cycles), Graham (intrinsic value)—to deepen analysis. Avoid shallow takes.
4. Analyze patterns and context: Technical patterns, sentiment, on-chain (for crypto), macro context (rates, inflation, geopolitics) where relevant.
5. Consider forecasts and previsions: What analysts or models say (bull/bear cases). Label as outlook, not fact.
6. Assess fit for situation: Does the asset align with the user's goals, risk, and horizon? Pros and cons in that context.
7. Present analysis: Structured report with current state, patterns, outlook, fit, risks, and caveats. When analysis supports a view, state it clearly—e.g. "For your profile, a small allocation (X–Y%) could fit because [sourced reasons]" or "Given your horizon and risk tolerance, this asset is likely misaligned—[reasons]."

What to Analyze

Current State

• Price: Current level, recent range (e.g. 30/90 days), key support/resistance if useful
• Volume / liquidity: Where relevant (e.g. crypto, equities)
• Trend: Short- and medium-term direction; cite time frame
• Context: Rates, inflation, dollar, geopolitics—only what's relevant to the asset

Cite source and date for every number (e.g. "BTC price as of [date] per [source]").

Pattern Recognition

• Technical: Trends, ranges, common patterns (e.g. breakout, consolidation). Describe, don't guarantee.
• Sentiment: Fear/greed, positioning, flows—when data is available and relevant
• On-chain (crypto): Active addresses, supply in profit/loss, exchange flows—when available
• Seasonal / cyclical: Historical patterns (e.g. gold in certain periods); state that past ≠ future

Label clearly: "pattern observed" vs "forecast or interpretation."

Forecasts and Previsions

• Analyst views: Summarize bull/bear cases; name source and date
• Model-based: E.g. valuation bands, trend extrapolation—state assumptions
• Scenarios: Best / base / worst case with clear "if X then Y" and caveats

No single "this will happen" claim; present range of views and uncertainty.

Fit for User Situation

• Goals: Growth vs income vs hedge vs diversification
• Risk tolerance: Volatility, drawdowns, loss capacity
• Time horizon: Short vs long term; liquidity needs
• Existing exposure: Already heavy in the asset? Diversification benefit?

Output: A clear conclusion with reasoning. E.g. "Given [situation], I'd lean [for/against/neutral] because [sourced reasons]. Consider [suggested allocation or action] if [conditions]." Tie every view to sources and profile.

Output Format

# Investment Analysis: [Asset] — [Date]

## Summary

[2–4 sentences: current state, main pattern/outlook, and fit with user situation. Include a clear conclusion when analysis supports it—e.g. "For a long-term, risk-tolerant profile, a small allocation could fit; for short horizons, likely misaligned."]

## Your Situation (as shared)

- Goals: [e.g. long-term growth, hedge inflation]
- Risk: [e.g. moderate, can tolerate 20% drawdown]
- Horizon: [e.g. 5+ years]
- [Optional] Current exposure: [e.g. none, 5% in gold]

## Current Market State

- **Price / level**: [value] as of [date] ([source])
- **Recent trend**: [e.g. up/down/sideways over 30/90 days]
- **Context**: [rates, inflation, or other relevant factor in 1–2 lines]

## Patterns & Indicators

- [Pattern 1]: [What you see and time frame]
- [Pattern 2]: [What you see and time frame]
- [Sentiment / on-chain if relevant]: [1–2 lines]

## Outlook & Previsions

- **Bull case**: [Short summary + source/date if applicable]
- **Bear case**: [Short summary]
- **Base case / range**: [If useful, with assumptions stated]

## Fit for Your Situation

- **Pros**: [How it could align with goals/risk/horizon]
- **Cons**: [Risks or misalignment with situation]
- **Conclusion**: [Clear view with reasoning. E.g. "For your profile (long-term, moderate risk), a 2–5% allocation could fit as a diversification/hedge—because [sourced reasons]. I'd avoid or minimize if [conditions]." Or "Given your short horizon, I'd lean against—[reasons]." State confidence and caveats.]

## Risks & Caveats

- [Risk 1]
- [Risk 2]
- Past performance does not guarantee future results. For large or complex decisions, consult a qualified professional.

Asset Coverage

• Precious metals: Gold, silver—price, trend, macro context (real rates, dollar, geopolitics), common use as hedge.
• Crypto: Bitcoin (and optionally major altcoins)—price, volume, on-chain metrics, sentiment, regulatory/macro tailwinds/risks.
• Equities / ETFs: Single names or broad indices—valuation, trend, sector context; same "current state + patterns + outlook + fit" structure.

For asset-specific metrics and data sources, see references/assets.md.

Time Awareness

• User specifies a period (e.g. "last 6 months", "2024") → Use that period for trends and data.
• No period given → Use most recent data (e.g. current price, last 30/90 days for trend).
• Always state the date and source for prices and metrics (e.g. "as of [date] per [source]").

Sources

• Prices / market data: Exchange or index provider, reputable aggregator (e.g. CoinGecko for crypto). Cite URL or name and date.
• On-chain (crypto): Public dashboards (e.g. Glassnode, CryptoQuant). Cite name and date.
• Macro: Central banks, statistical offices, widely cited data. Cite source and date.
• Analyst views: Named source and date; treat as opinion, not fact.

Prefer primary or well-known sources. Never invent data.

Anti-Patterns

• ❌ Giving conclusions without sources, reasoning, or profile fit (vague advice erodes trust)
• ❌ Over-hedging when analysis supports a view—the user deserves a clear take
• ❌ Guaranteeing returns or price levels
• ❌ Using data without source and date
• ❌ Presenting one view as certainty; show range and uncertainty
• ❌ Ignoring user situation; always tie fit to goals, risk, and horizon
• ❌ Skipping risks and caveats