lamm-mit/skills/what-if-oracle

What-If Oracle Skill — Full Content Extract

Overview

The What-If Oracle is a structured scenario analysis tool designed to explore uncertain futures through multi-branch possibility mapping. It activates when users ask speculative questions about futures, decisions, risks, or consequences.

Core Framework: 0·IF·1

The system operates on three elements:

• 0: The unexpressed potential state
• 1: The expressed current reality
• IF: The conditional transformation between them

The precision of the IF determines analysis quality. Vague questions yield vague results; specific variables produce actionable intelligence.

Four-Phase Process

Phase 1 — Frame: Sharpen vague What-Ifs by decomposing into variable, magnitude, timeframe, and context. Present the refined question for confirmation.

Phase 2 — Map: Generate 4-6 scenario branches:

• Ω Best Case (maximum upside)
• α Likely Case (most probable path)
• Δ Worst Case (maximum downside)
• Ψ Wild Card (black swan territory)
• Φ Contrarian (opposite of consensus)
• ∞ Second Order (cascading ripple effects)

Phase 3 — Analyze: For each branch, detail probability, narrative, key assumptions, trigger conditions, consequences timeline, required responses, and overlooked insights.

Phase 4 — Synthesize: Provide probability distribution, identify robust cross-branch actions, define decision triggers, and surface the "1% insight" most analysis overlooks.

Operating Modes

• Quick Oracle: Three branches, fast analysis
• Deep Oracle: Full six-branch analysis with comprehensive detail
• Scenario Chain: Recursive analysis within branches
• Reverse Oracle: Backward mapping from desired outcomes
• Competitive Oracle: Multi-stakeholder perspective analysis

Golden Ratio Principle

Allocate attention: 61.8% to primary scenario, 38.2% to alternatives—matching natural branching patterns.

License: MIT | Author: AHK Strategies