kavi-lin/market-news-analyst

Market News Analyst

Analyse 10-day market-moving news → impact-ranked English Markdown report. All thinking + output in English. See README.md for principles, pitfalls, and pedagogy.

Prerequisites

WebSearch + WebFetch available. No API keys.

When to Use

User asks for: recent market news analysis, FOMC / ECB / BOJ decision impact, mega-cap earnings review, geopolitical → commodity reactions, or "past 10 days of market-moving events".

Analysis Workflow (6 Steps)

Step 1: News Collection (WebSearch + WebFetch)

Execute parallel searches across these categories:

| Category | Query examples | |---|---| | Monetary policy | "FOMC meeting past 10 days", "Federal Reserve interest rate", "ECB policy decision", "Bank of Japan" | | Inflation / econ data | "CPI inflation [month]", "NFP jobs report", "GDP data", "PPI producer prices" | | Mega-cap earnings | "Apple earnings [quarter]", "MSFT earnings", "NVDA earnings", "AMZN", "TSLA", "META", "GOOGL" | | Geopolitics | "Middle East conflict oil", "Ukraine war", "US China tensions", "tariffs" | | Commodities | "oil prices past week", "gold prices", "OPEC meeting", "natural gas", "copper" | | Corporate | "major M&A", "bank earnings", "bankruptcy", "credit rating downgrade" |

Source priority (highest → lowest):

1. Official: FederalReserve.gov, SEC.gov (EDGAR), Treasury.gov, BLS.gov
2. Tier 1 press: Bloomberg, Reuters, WSJ, Financial Times
3. Tier 2: CNBC (realtime), MarketWatch, S&P Global Platts (commodities)

Full tier list: references/trusted_news_sources.md.

Filter: drop stock-specific small-caps, minor product updates, routine filings. Only keep news with clear market impact (price move, volume spike).

Capture per item: date+time, event type, source tier, initial reaction.

Step 2: Load Knowledge Base References

Always load:

• references/market_event_patterns.md
• references/trusted_news_sources.md

Conditionally load (based on news types collected):

| News type | Load | Focus sections | |---|---|---| | Monetary policy | market_event_patterns.md | Central Bank Monetary Policy Events | | Geopolitical | geopolitical_commodity_correlations.md | Energy, Precious Metals, matching region | | Mega-cap earnings | corporate_news_impact.md | Specific company sections, sector contagion | | Commodity news | geopolitical_commodity_correlations.md | Oil / Gold / Copper / etc. |

Use references to: predict expected reaction, identify anomalies (reaction differed from historical pattern), assess typical vs outsized magnitude, check if contagion spread as expected.

Step 3: Impact Magnitude Assessment

Score each news item across 3 dimensions.

1. Asset Price Impact (primary, 1-10 points):

Equity — index level (S&P 500 / Nasdaq / Dow):

• Severe ≥ ±2% → 10 pts
• Major ±1-2% → 7 pts
• Moderate ±0.5-1% → 4 pts
• Minor ±0.2-0.5% → 2 pts
• Negligible <0.2% → 1 pt

Equity — sector ETF: Severe ±5%+ / Major ±3-5% / Moderate ±1-3% Equity — mega-cap stock: Severe ±10%+ / Major ±5-10% / Moderate ±2-5%

Commodities:

• Oil (WTI/Brent): Severe ±5%+ / Major ±3-5% / Moderate ±1-3%
• Gold: Severe ±3%+ / Major ±1.5-3% / Moderate ±0.5-1.5%
• Base metals: Severe ±4%+ / Major ±2-4% / Moderate ±1-2%

Bonds — 10Y Treasury yield: Severe ±20bps+ / Major ±10-20bps / Moderate ±5-10bps FX — DXY: Severe ±1.5%+ / Major ±0.75-1.5% / Moderate ±0.3-0.75%

2. Breadth Multiplier:

• Systemic (3×): multiple asset classes, global markets — FOMC surprise, banking crisis, war outbreak
• Cross-asset (2×): equities + commodities, or equities + bonds — inflation surprise, geopolitical supply shock
• Sector-wide (1.5×): entire sector / related sectors — tech earnings cluster, energy policy
• Stock-specific (1×): single company (unless mega-cap moves index)

3. Forward-Looking Modifier:

• Regime change: +50% — Fed pivot, major geopolitical realignment
• Trend confirmation: +25% — consecutive strong inflation prints, sustained earnings beats
• Isolated event: 0% — single data point within range, company-specific
• Contrary signal: −25% — good news ignored, bad news rallied

Formula: Impact Score = (Price Impact × Breadth Multiplier) × (1 + Forward Modifier)

Examples:

• FOMC 75bps hawkish + S&P −2.5% systemic, trend-confirm: (10 × 3) × 1.25 = 37.5
• NVDA earnings beat + NDQ +1.5% sector-wide, trend-confirm: (10 × 1.5) × 1.25 = 18.75
• Middle East flare, oil +8% / S&P −1.2% cross-asset isolated: (10 × 2) × 1.0 = 20

Rank all items by score desc → determines report ordering.

Step 4: Market Reaction Analysis

For each item with score > 5, track reaction across assets:

Equities: index perf (S&P / Nasdaq / Dow / Russell 2000), sector rotation, mega-cap moves, Growth vs Value, Large vs Small. Fixed income: 2Y / 10Y / 30Y yields, curve shape, credit spreads (IG, HY), TIPS breakevens. Commodities: energy (WTI/Brent/NG), precious metals, base metals, ags (if relevant). FX: DXY, EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, EM currencies, safe havens (JPY, CHF). Derivatives: VIX, put/call ratio, unusual options volume, futures positioning.

Pattern comparison vs knowledge base:

• Consistent — matched historical pattern
• Amplified — reaction > typical (investigate: positioning, sentiment, cumulative factors)
• Dampened — reaction < typical (investigate: already priced in, offsetting factors)
• Inverse — opposite direction (investigate: "good news is bad news", Fed pivot hopes)

Anomaly flags: market shrugged off market-moving news / overreaction to minor news / contagion failed to spread / safe havens broke correlations.

Sentiment indicators: risk-on vs risk-off regime, crowded-trade unwinds, follow-through vs reversal.

Step 5: Correlation and Causation Assessment

Multi-event interaction:

• Reinforcing — same direction (hawkish FOMC + hot CPI → amplified bearish, often non-linear)
• Offsetting — opposite directions (good earnings + geopolitical risk → muted net; identify dominant factor)
• Sequential — prior event primes next (first hike modest / second hike severe due to cumulative tightening)
• Coincidental — unrelated but simultaneous (note attribution uncertainty)

Geopolitical ↔ commodity correlation (use geopolitical_commodity_correlations.md):

• Energy: map conflict/sanction → supply disruption risk → actual vs feared impact → temporary spike vs sustained
• Precious metals: safe-haven flows vs real-rate drivers, central bank buying
• Industrial metals: demand destruction from slowdown fears, China factor
• Ags: Black Sea grain (Russia-Ukraine), weather overlays, food security policy

Transmission channels:

• Direct: News → immediate price (OPEC cut → oil up)
• Indirect: News → economic effect → price (rate hike → mortgage rates → housing → homebuilders)
• Sentiment: News → risk appetite shift → reallocation (banking crisis → flight to quality)
• Feedback loop: selloff → margin calls → forced selling → deeper selloff

Step 6: Report Generation

Output English Markdown report. Section skeleton (fill all sections, skip only if N/A):

# Market News Analysis Report — [Date Range]

## Executive Summary
[3-4 sentences: period, event count, dominant theme/regime, top 1-2 highest-impact events]

## Market Impact Rankings
| Rank | Event | Date | Impact Score | Assets Affected | Reaction |

## Detailed Event Analysis
### [Rank]. [Event Name] (Impact Score: [X])
**Event Date** / **Event Type** / **Source**

#### Event Summary
[3-4 sentences: what happened, context (expected vs surprise), forward guidance]

#### Market Reaction
**Immediate (day-of)**:
- Equities: S&P [±%], NDQ [±%], sector rotation
- Bonds: 10Y yield [change], credit spreads
- Commodities: Oil/Gold/Copper [±%] (if relevant)
- FX: USD [±%], relevant pairs
- Volatility: VIX level/change

**Follow-through**: sustained / reversed / consolidated

**Pattern comparison**: expected vs actual (consistent / amplified / dampened / inverse) + explanation

#### Impact Assessment Detail
- Asset Price Impact: [severity] — justification
- Breadth: [systemic/cross-asset/sector/stock-specific] — affected markets
- Forward Significance: [regime change / trend confirm / isolated / contrary]
- **Score**: (Price × Breadth) × (1 + Forward) = [total]

#### Sector-Specific Impacts (if relevant)
[Sector: impact + reason, e.g. Tech −3% rate sensitivity, Energy +5% oil spillover]

#### Geopolitical-Commodity Correlation (geopolitical events only)
Commodity price move / supply-demand mechanism / historical precedent / expected duration

[Repeat per event in rank order]

## Thematic Synthesis
### Dominant Market Narrative
[Overarching theme across 10-day window]

### Interconnected Events
[How events related/compounded, sequential causation]

### Market Regime Assessment
Risk appetite: [Risk-On / Risk-Off / Mixed]
Evidence: sector performance, safe-haven flows, credit spreads, VIX
Sector rotation: Growth vs Value, Cyclicals vs Defensives, out/underperformers

### Anomalies and Surprises
[Unexpected reactions + likely explanation]

## Commodity Market Deep Dive
### Energy: WTI/Brent price level, % change, drivers; Natural Gas if significant
### Precious Metals: Gold/Silver level, drivers (rates, safe haven, central banks)
### Base Metals: Copper/Aluminum if significant
### Agricultural: if relevant

## Forward-Looking Implications
### Market Positioning Insights
[What this analysis suggests for positioning: overweight/underweight, defensive posture]

### Upcoming Catalysts
[Near-term events that may drive markets — next FOMC, CPI, earnings clusters]

### Risk Scenarios
[Downside + upside scenarios with probability-weighted impacts]

## Data Sources and Methodology
- News sources consulted: [list]
- Analysis period: [exact date range]
- Market data: [data sources used]
- Knowledge base references loaded: [which references]

Tone: rigorous, quantified, English. Avoid vague words ("significant", "large") — always use numbers (%, bps).

Resources

references/

• market_event_patterns.md — central bank decisions, inflation/jobs data, geopolitical events, earnings, credit events, commodity events, recession indicators, historical case studies, pattern-recognition framework
• geopolitical_commodity_correlations.md — energy/precious metals/base metals/ags correlations with geopolitical conflicts, rare earths, regional frameworks (Middle East / Russia-Europe / Asia-Pacific / LatAm), time-horizon guidance
• corporate_news_impact.md — Magnificent 7, financial mega-caps, healthcare mega-caps, energy mega-caps, consumer staples, industrial mega-caps, earnings/product launch/M&A frameworks, sector contagion
• trusted_news_sources.md — tier 1-4 source map, search strategies, red-flag sources to avoid

Important Notes

• All thinking + output in English
• WebSearch/WebFetch only — no API keys
• Filter: Tier 1 market-moving events only
• Rank by impact score (Price × Breadth × (1+Forward))
• Target period: past 10 days from current date
• FOMC / central bank decisions get highest priority
• Distinguish correlation from causation rigorously
• Quantify all market reactions with specific %, bps
• Conditionally load references based on news types