defeat-beta/defeatbeta-earnings-preview

Earnings Preview

Build pre-earnings analysis with estimate models, scenario frameworks, and key metrics to watch. Use before a company reports quarterly earnings to prepare positioning notes, set up bull/base/bear scenarios, and identify what will move the stock.

Workflow

Step 1: Gather Context

• Identify the company and reporting quarter
• Pull consensus estimates via web search, including revenue, EPS, and key segment metrics
• Find the earnings date and time, including whether the report is pre-market or after-hours
• Review management guidance and commentary from the prior quarter's earnings call by using the defeatbeta MCP server transcript tools:
  • First call get_stock_earning_call_transcripts_list(symbol) to identify available earnings call transcripts and select the most recent reported fiscal quarter
  • Then call get_stock_earning_call_transcript(symbol, fiscal_year, fiscal_quarter) to retrieve the full transcript for that fiscal period
  • Extract management guidance, outlook, demand commentary, margin commentary, capital allocation comments, and any explicit forward-looking statements from the transcript
  • Do not use web search as a substitute for prior-quarter management guidance; if the MCP transcript tools return no transcript or are unavailable, explicitly state the data gap

Step 2: Key Metrics Framework

Build a "what to watch" framework specific to the company:

Financial Metrics:

• Revenue vs. consensus, total and by segment
• EPS vs. consensus
• Margins, including gross, operating, and net margin
• Free cash flow
• Forward guidance vs. consensus

Operational Metrics (sector-specific):

• Tech/SaaS: ARR, net retention, RPO, customer count
• Retail: Same-store sales, traffic, basket size
• Industrials: Backlog, book-to-bill, price vs. volume
• Financials: NIM, credit quality, loan growth, fee income
• Healthcare: Scripts, patient volumes, pipeline updates

Step 3: Scenario Analysis

Build three scenarios with stock price implications:

| Scenario | Revenue | EPS | Key Driver | Stock Reaction | |----------|---------|-----|------------|----------------| | Bull | | | | | | Base | | | | | | Bear | | | | |

For each scenario:

• What would need to happen operationally
• What management commentary would signal this
• Historical context, including how the stock has moved on similar prints

Step 4: Catalyst Checklist

Identify the three to five things that will determine the stock's reaction:

1. [Metric] vs. [consensus/whisper number] - why it matters
2. [Guidance item] - what the buy-side expects to hear
3. [Narrative shift] - any strategic changes, M&A, restructuring

Step 5: Output

One-page earnings preview with:

• Company, quarter, earnings date
• Consensus estimates table
• Prior-quarter management guidance from the defeatbeta MCP server transcript tools
• Key metrics to watch, ranked by importance
• Bull/base/bear scenario table
• Catalyst checklist
• Trading setup: recent stock performance and implied move from options

Important Notes

• Consensus estimates change, so always note the source and date of estimates
• Prior-quarter management guidance must come from the defeatbeta MCP server transcript tools, not web search
• Whisper numbers from buy-side surveys are often more relevant than published consensus
• Historical earnings reactions help calibrate expectations; search for "[company] earnings reaction history"
• Options-implied move tells you what the market expects; compare it to your scenarios