casemark/modeling-capital-budgeting-decisions

Modeling Capital Budgeting Decisions

Builds NPV, IRR, and payback models for capital investment decisions with hurdle rate calibration and risk adjustment.

When To Use

• Evaluating a proposed capital expenditure (new plant, equipment, technology platform, acquisition)
• Comparing two or more mutually exclusive projects competing for the same budget
• Setting or recalibrating a corporate hurdle rate for investment approvals
• Stress-testing an already-approved project under revised macro or operational assumptions
• Building a capital allocation ranking framework across business units or divisions

Inputs To Gather

• Project cash flows: Initial outlay (CapEx), annual operating cash inflows/outflows, terminal or salvage value, and project life in years
• Cost of capital components: Risk-free rate, equity risk premium, beta (levered/unlevered), pre-tax cost of debt, target capital structure weights, marginal tax rate [VERIFY: tax rate by jurisdiction]
• Hurdle rate policy: Whether the firm uses a single corporate WACC, divisional hurdle rates, or project-specific rates; any stated premium above WACC for risk categories
• Tax and depreciation schedule: Depreciation method (straight-line, MACRS, declining balance), applicable asset class lives [VERIFY: depreciation schedules per local tax code]
• Working capital requirements: Incremental net working capital at launch, annual changes, and release at project end
• Risk parameters: Probability-weighted scenario definitions (base, upside, downside), key variable ranges for sensitivity analysis, correlation assumptions if running Monte Carlo

Workflow

1. Establish the discount rate

   • Compute WACC from current capital structure, adjusting for project-specific risk if the investment's risk profile differs materially from the firm's overall portfolio
   • If divisional hurdle rates apply, confirm the appropriate segment rate and any board-mandated spread
   • Document whether the rate is nominal or real and ensure cash flow projections match

2. Build the free cash flow projection

   • Lay out year-by-year unlevered free cash flows: EBITDA − taxes on EBIT + depreciation tax shield − CapEx − ΔNet Working Capital
   • Include any phased investment (multi-year build-out) and ramp-up curves for revenue
   • Model terminal value using either perpetuity growth (Gordon Growth) or exit multiple, stating which and why

3. Compute primary metrics

   • NPV: Discount all FCFs at the hurdle rate; positive NPV = value-creating
   • IRR: Solve for the rate that zeroes the NPV; flag non-conventional cash flow streams where multiple IRRs may exist
   • Payback period: Simple (undiscounted) and discounted payback; note corporate policy threshold if one exists
   • Profitability Index (PI): NPV ÷ initial investment; useful when capital is rationed across multiple projects

4. Run sensitivity and scenario analysis

   • One-variable sensitivity: toggle revenue growth, operating margin, discount rate, and CapEx ±10–20% to identify the highest-impact driver
   • Scenario matrix: define base / bull / bear cases with coherent assumption sets (not just single-variable swings)
   • Optional: Monte Carlo simulation with probability distributions on 3–5 key inputs; report P10 / P50 / P90 NPV outcomes

5. Rank and recommend

   • If comparing projects, present a ranking table by NPV, IRR, PI, and payback
   • Highlight conflicts (e.g., IRR ranking differs from NPV ranking due to project scale differences) and explain which metric should govern
   • State whether the project(s) clear the hurdle rate and by what margin

Output

The deliverable is a structured capital budgeting model containing:

• Assumptions table: Every input clearly listed with source, date, and [VERIFY] flags where data needs confirmation
• FCF schedule: Year-by-year projection with line-item detail
• Metrics summary: NPV, IRR, payback (simple and discounted), PI — each with a brief interpretation
• Sensitivity dashboard: Tornado chart or table showing NPV sensitivity to each key variable
• Scenario summary: Base / bull / bear NPV and IRR with narrative on what drives each case
• Recommendation: Clear accept/reject/defer conclusion tied to the firm's hurdle rate policy and capital constraints

Quality Checks

• NPV at the IRR equals zero (mechanical cross-check)
• Cash flows are internally consistent: depreciation ties to CapEx schedule, tax shield ties to depreciation, working capital release nets to zero over project life
• Discount rate is applied consistently (nominal-to-nominal or real-to-real; no mixing)
• Terminal value does not exceed 60–70% of total project NPV without explicit justification — if it does, flag concentration risk
• All tax rates, depreciation lives, and regulatory incentives carry [VERIFY] tags referencing the applicable jurisdiction
• Sensitivity ranges are realistic (not artificially narrow to make the project look safe)
• If IRR is used as the primary decision metric for mutually exclusive projects, confirm that the reinvestment rate assumption is appropriate; prefer NPV when projects differ in scale or timing