casemark/analyzing-water-risk

Analyzing Water Risk

When To Use

• Evaluating a portfolio company or asset for exposure to water stress, scarcity, or quality degradation
• Conducting pre-investment due diligence on water-intensive sectors (agriculture, mining, semiconductors, beverages, textiles, utilities)
• Assessing regulatory risk from emerging water pricing, allocation caps, or discharge limits
• Scoring water risk as part of a broader ESG or climate-risk integration framework
• Responding to CDP Water Security questionnaire items or TNFD water-related disclosures

Inputs To Gather

• Asset/company identifiers: Facility locations (latitude/longitude or basin names), sector/NAICS codes, revenue segments
• Water usage data: Withdrawal volumes, consumption vs. discharge, water intensity ratios (m³ per unit of output or revenue)
• Basin-level stress indicators: WRI Aqueduct scores, WWF Water Risk Filter results, or equivalent basin stress metrics for each operating location
• Regulatory landscape: Applicable water rights regime, discharge permit conditions, pending legislation on water pricing or allocation [VERIFY jurisdiction-specific rules]
• Supply chain exposure: Tier-1 and Tier-2 supplier locations and water dependency where available
• Financial data: CAPEX/OPEX tied to water procurement, treatment, and compliance; insurance claims history for flood or drought events

Workflow

1. Define scope and materiality threshold

   • Confirm whether analysis covers direct operations, supply chain, or both
   • Set materiality threshold (e.g., facilities representing >5% of revenue or withdrawal volume)
   • Identify the reporting framework driving the analysis (CDP, TNFD, SASB, internal risk policy)

2. Map water stress exposure by location

   • Overlay facility coordinates against WRI Aqueduct Baseline Water Stress, Seasonal Variability, and Projected Change layers
   • Classify each site as Low / Low-Medium / Medium-High / High / Extremely High stress
   • Flag sites in regions with declining groundwater trends or recent drought declarations
   • Note any sites co-located with competing high-demand users (large-scale agriculture, municipal systems)

3. Quantify operational water dependency

   • Calculate water intensity metrics: m³ per unit produced, per $M revenue, and per employee
   • Benchmark against sector peers using SASB or CDP sector medians
   • Identify single-source dependencies (one aquifer, one municipal intake) that create concentration risk
   • Assess recycling/reuse rates and whether current efficiency gains are plateauing

4. Evaluate regulatory and pricing exposure

   • Catalog current water rights, permits, and pricing structures per facility [VERIFY local water law regime]
   • Identify jurisdictions with pending or proposed water pricing reforms, cap-and-trade for allocations, or tightening discharge standards
   • Estimate cost impact under plausible regulatory scenarios (e.g., 20%/50% price increase, allocation reduction)
   • Flag any history of permit violations, enforcement actions, or community opposition

5. Assess physical risk scenarios

   • Model exposure under IPCC SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios for 2030 and 2050 horizons
   • Evaluate flood risk for coastal or floodplain-adjacent facilities
   • Consider compound risks: drought + heat stress on cooling systems, flood + contamination of intake sources

6. Score and prioritize

   • Assign a composite water risk score per facility combining stress level, dependency, regulatory exposure, and physical scenario impact
   • Aggregate to portfolio or company level using revenue-weighted or withdrawal-weighted roll-up
   • Rank facilities/companies into risk tiers for action prioritization

7. Identify mitigation levers and residual risk

   • Map existing mitigation measures (efficiency programs, alternative sourcing, storage, insurance)
   • Estimate residual risk after mitigation
   • Recommend targeted interventions for highest-risk sites (source diversification, on-site treatment, engagement with local water authorities)

Output

Deliver a structured Water Risk Assessment Report containing:

• Executive summary: Top-line risk rating, key hotspots, and recommended actions
• Facility-level risk matrix: Table with location, basin stress score, water intensity, regulatory exposure flag, physical scenario rating, and composite score
• Heat map visualization guidance: Specify data fields for a geographic heat map overlay (tool-agnostic; reference WRI Aqueduct or equivalent layer)
• Regulatory exposure register: Jurisdiction, current regime, pending changes, estimated cost impact [VERIFY each jurisdiction]
• Scenario analysis summary: Cost and operational impact under modeled regulatory and physical scenarios
• Mitigation recommendations: Prioritized by risk reduction potential and implementation feasibility
• Data gaps and limitations: Explicitly note missing supplier data, unverified self-reported volumes, or basins lacking reliable stress data

Quality Checks

• Every facility with >5% of total withdrawal volume is individually assessed — no material site omitted
• Basin stress classifications cite a named data source and vintage year (e.g., "WRI Aqueduct 4.0, 2023 baseline")
• Water intensity benchmarks reference a stated peer set and data year
• Regulatory exposure flags include [VERIFY] markers where rules vary by sub-national jurisdiction or are subject to pending legislative change
• Scenario assumptions (time horizon, SSP pathway, price increase magnitude) are stated explicitly, not embedded silently
• Composite scoring methodology is transparent — weights and thresholds documented so a reviewer can reproduce the rating
• Report distinguishes between verified data and estimates/proxies throughout