brycewang-stanford/choosing-causalpy-methods
skills/51-pymc-labs-CausalPy/skills/choosing-causalpy-methods/SKILL.md
Choose the appropriate CausalPy experiment class from a causal question, data structure, treatment assignment, and identification assumptions. Use before writing analysis code when the method is not yet settled.
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skillsauthnpx skillsauth add brycewang-stanford/Awesome-Agent-Skills-for-Empirical-Research choosing-causalpy-methodsInstall this skill globally with one command. Works with Claude Code, Cursor, and Windsurf.
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SKILL.md
- name:
- choosing-causalpy-methods
- description:
- Choose the appropriate CausalPy experiment class from a causal question, data structure, treatment assignment, and identification assumptions. Use before writing analysis code when the method is not yet settled.
Choosing CausalPy Methods
Use this skill to translate a user's causal question into a CausalPy experiment choice. This is the design-intake skill, not the implementation skill. Once the method is chosen, hand off to running-causalpy-experiments for constructor details, model configuration, priors, summaries, plots, and interpretation.
Intake Checklist
- Restate the estimand: ATE, ATT, local threshold effect, treatment-on-treated over time, cumulative impact, or a policy/campaign lift.
- Identify the data shape: single time series, wide panel of units, long panel of unit-time rows, cross-section, or pre/post group data.
- Identify treatment assignment: known intervention time, staggered adoption, threshold/cutoff, kink, instrument, observed treatment with confounders, or treated unit plus donor pool.
- Check the identifying story: parallel trends, no anticipation, no manipulation at cutoff, valid instrument, overlap/positivity, convex hull/donor support, or trend continuity.
- Recommend one primary CausalPy experiment and any plausible alternatives, then explain the extra data or assumptions needed to choose among them.
Fast Routing
- One treated time series, known intervention time, no donor pool:
InterruptedTimeSeries. - Known level/slope changes in one time series, especially multiple interruptions:
PiecewiseITS. - Treated and control groups observed before and after one intervention:
DifferenceInDifferences. - Units adopt treatment at different times:
StaggeredDifferenceInDifferences. - One or more treated units with multiple untreated donor units in wide panel format:
SyntheticControl. - Synthetic-control setting where both unit weights and pre-period time weights are part of the design:
SyntheticDifferenceInDifferences. - Panel regression or fixed-effects adjustment is the target rather than a named quasi-experimental design:
PanelRegression. - Pretest/posttest nonequivalent groups with a baseline outcome:
PrePostNEGD. - Treatment assigned by crossing a cutoff in a running variable:
RegressionDiscontinuity. - Treatment intensity changes slope at a threshold rather than jumping in level:
RegressionKink. - Treatment is endogenous but there is a credible instrument:
InstrumentalVariable. - Observational binary treatment with measured confounders and overlap:
InversePropensityWeighting.
Output Pattern
When you use this skill, return:
- Recommended method: name the CausalPy experiment class.
- Why it fits: tie the recommendation to data shape, assignment mechanism, and estimand.
- Required columns/data layout: list the minimal data structure needed.
- Key assumptions: state what must be credible for a causal interpretation.
- Main risks: name obvious failure modes or sensitivity checks.
- Next step: route to
running-causalpy-experimentsand the relevant method reference.
References
- Experiment decision guide
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