brycewang-stanford/aer-workflow

AER Workflow

Overview

This is the router. It does not replace any specialized skill. It tells you which one to use next, and in what order.

Default assumption: unless the user names a different venue, the manuscript targets AER, AER: Insights, or an AEJ journal — not a finance journal, not a generic economics field journal, and not a working-paper repository.

When to Use

• The user asks "what should I work on next?"
• The user dumps a draft and you must decide where the bottleneck is
• The user is rotating between writing, empirics, and revision and loses track of which stage they are in
• A new reviewer report has arrived and the work mode must switch from drafting to rebuttal

Routing Map

Use:

• aer-topic-selection when the project is new, when the user is undecided between AER / Insights / an AEJ, or when the contribution sentence cannot be written in one line
• aer-identification when the empirical design is the bottleneck — DiD, IV, RDD, SCM, shift-share, event study, RCT analysis
• aer-robustness when the main results exist but referee-anticipating checks (placebo, heterogeneity, mechanism, alternative samples) are missing or weak
• aer-introduction when drafting or rewriting the introduction, or when the abstract is over 100 words
• aer-tables-figures when regression tables are inconsistent, oversized, footnote-bloated, or do not match AER house style
• aer-replication when preparing the AEA Data and Code Availability deposit, writing the README, or auditing reproducibility before acceptance
• aer-submission when running the final preflight before clicking submit — length, format, cover letter, conflicts
• aer-rebuttal when reviewer comments exist and a point-by-point response letter plus aligned manuscript edits are needed

Default Sequence

For most empirical AER-track manuscripts, prefer this order:

1. aer-topic-selection — fix the contribution sentence and the target venue before anything else
2. aer-identification — stress-test the design; if it fails here, no later skill saves the paper
3. aer-robustness — anticipate the three robustness checks the median referee will demand
4. aer-introduction — only now write the five-paragraph intro and the 100-word abstract
5. aer-tables-figures — finalize the main exhibits in AER house style
6. aer-replication — assemble the deposit package while results are still fresh in code
7. aer-submission — final preflight: length, format, cover letter, COI
8. aer-rebuttal — after external review, revise manuscript first, then write the letter against the revised version

Decision Cues

If the user says...

• "I have an idea but I don't know if it's AER-worthy" → aer-topic-selection
• "My DiD has staggered treatment" → aer-identification
• "My first stage F is 8" → aer-identification (weak-IV branch)
• "The referee said the result might be driven by X" → aer-robustness
• "My intro is 4 pages and the editor hated it" → aer-introduction
• "My table 3 has 14 columns" → aer-tables-figures
• "The Data Editor flagged my README" → aer-replication
• "I'm submitting tomorrow" → aer-submission
• "I got an R&R with three reports" → aer-rebuttal

Common Mistakes

• polishing the introduction before the identification strategy is stable
• writing the abstract before deciding AER vs AER:Insights (the 100-word limit is the same but the framing differs sharply)
• treating tables and figures as a final-week task; AER tables drive how reviewers read results
• writing the rebuttal letter against the old draft instead of the revised manuscript
• assembling the replication package only after acceptance — the AEA Data Editor's report is now part of the production timeline and can delay publication by weeks
• defaulting to the OLS + cluster-by-state recipe; modern AER demands design-based identification

Anti-Patterns

• Using a generic "scientific writing" skill in place of aer-introduction — the introduction conventions differ (no heading, five-paragraph Head formula, ≤ 100-word abstract)
• Using a generic "data availability" skill in place of aer-replication — the AEA policy is unusually strict and the openICPSR workflow is specific
• Skipping aer-topic-selection because "I already know this is an AER paper" — desk rejection at AER is ~60% and the top-5 bar is cross-subfield interest, not technical competence

Handoff Contract

Whenever this skill is invoked, end with:

NEXT SKILL: <aer-skill-name>
REASON: <one sentence>
INPUTS NEEDED: <list of artifacts the next skill needs>

This keeps the agent loop tight when the user runs multiple skills in sequence.