athina-ai/customer-win-back-sequencer

Customer Win-Back Sequencer

Not every churned customer is gone forever. This skill identifies which ones to pursue, finds the right re-engagement angle, and generates a personalized win-back sequence. Timing and relevance are everything — no generic "we miss you" emails.

Built for: Startups that have churned customers sitting in a spreadsheet with no plan to re-engage them. The best win-back campaigns are triggered by change — this skill monitors for those changes and strikes when the timing is right.

When to Use

• "Which churned customers should we try to win back?"
• "Build a win-back campaign for [customer]"
• "Research our churned accounts for re-engagement opportunities"
• "Generate win-back emails for customers who left because of [reason]"
• "Run the win-back scan on our churn list"

Phase 0: Intake

Churned Account Data

1. Churn list — CSV/sheet with: company name, domain, contact email, contact LinkedIn URL (if available), churn date, MRR at churn, churn reason (if known)
2. Time since churn filter — Min/max months since churn to consider (default: 3-18 months. Too recent = too soon. Too old = too stale.)
3. Minimum value — Only pursue accounts above $X MRR? (Focus effort on worthwhile wins)

Product Context

4. Major product updates since churn — What's new? (Features, pricing changes, integrations, performance improvements)
5. Churn reasons addressed — Which past churn reasons have you actually fixed?
6. Current offer — Any win-back incentive? (Discount, extended trial, concierge onboarding, free migration)

Sequence Preferences

7. Sender — Who should the emails come from? (Founder, CSM, account exec)
8. Channel — Email only, or email + LinkedIn?
9. Sequence length — How many touches? (Default: 3-4 over 3-4 weeks)

Phase 1: Churned Account Research

For each account in the churn list, research what's changed:

1A: Company Changes

Search: "[company name]" funding OR raised OR "series" OR acquisition 2025 2026
Search: "[company name]" hiring OR "we're hiring" OR "growing team"
Search: "[company name]" launch OR "new product" OR expansion OR pivot

Extract:

• Funding: New round raised? (More budget available)
• Growth: Headcount increasing? New hires in relevant roles?
• Product changes: Launched something new that would benefit from your product?
• Market moves: Entered a new market, new partnerships?

1B: Contact Changes

Search: "[contact name]" "[company name]" OR linkedin.com
Search: "[company name]" "[relevant title]" new OR hired OR promoted

Determine:

• Same contact still there? If yes, continuity helps. If no, find the new person.
• Contact promoted? More authority = bigger potential deal.
• New decision-maker? Fresh eyes, no baggage from the old experience.

1C: Competitor Dissatisfaction Signals

If you know which competitor they switched to:

Search: "[competitor name]" complaints OR issues OR "looking for alternative"
Search: "[competitor name]" site:g2.com negative reviews
Search: "[company name]" "[competitor name]" OR "switched from"

Look for:

• Public complaints about the competitor they switched to
• Reviews mentioning problems that your product solves
• Signs of "buyer's remorse" in the market

1D: Product-Churn Fit Analysis

Match what's changed in your product against their churn reason:

| Churn Reason | Product Update | Win-Back Angle | |-------------|----------------|----------------| | "Too expensive" | New pricing tier / startup discount | Price-based re-engagement | | "Missing [feature]" | [Feature] shipped | Feature announcement | | "Too complex" | Simplified onboarding / UX overhaul | "We listened" narrative | | "Switched to [competitor]" | Competitive advantage developed | Competitive displacement | | "Didn't see ROI" | New ROI dashboard / case studies | Proof-based approach | | "Champion left" | N/A — find new champion | Fresh start narrative | | "Company downsized" | Company now growing again (from research) | Timing-based re-engagement |

Phase 2: Win-Back Scoring

Score each churned account's re-engagement potential:

Win-Back Score = (Change Signal × Churn Reason Addressability × Account Value) / Time Decay

Change Signal (1-5):
  5 = Multiple strong signals (funding + growth + competitor issues)
  4 = One strong signal (funding or significant growth)
  3 = Moderate signal (hiring, product launch)
  2 = Minor signal (still operating, no major changes)
  1 = No detectable change

Churn Reason Addressability (1-3):
  3 = You've directly fixed the reason they left
  2 = Partially addressed or different angle available
  1 = Same issues exist / unknown churn reason

Account Value (multiplier):
  2.0x = Was top 20% by MRR
  1.5x = Mid-tier MRR
  1.0x = Lower MRR

Time Decay (divisor):
  1.0 = Churned 3-6 months ago (sweet spot)
  1.2 = Churned 6-12 months ago
  1.5 = Churned 12-18 months ago
  2.0 = Churned 18+ months ago

Priority Tiers

| Tier | Score | Action | |------|-------|--------| | High Priority | 8+ | Full personalized sequence + founder outreach | | Medium Priority | 4-7 | Personalized sequence | | Low Priority | 1-3 | Batch campaign or skip |

Phase 3: Sequence Generation

Win-Back Sequence — High Priority (4 emails over 4 weeks)

Email 1: The Relevant Update (Day 0)

Subject options:
A: "[First name], [specific thing] changed since we last spoke"
B: "We fixed the thing that made you leave"
C: "[Company] + [Your Product] — worth another look?"

---

Hi [First name],

[1 sentence acknowledging they left — no guilt, no desperation]

Since then, we've [specific improvement that addresses their churn reason]:

- [Change 1 — most relevant to their pain]
- [Change 2]
- [Change 3]

[If you have a relevant customer proof point]:
"[Company in their space] switched back and saw [result]."

Would it be worth a 15-minute look at what's different?

[Soft CTA — no pressure]

[Signature]

Email 2: The Proof Point (Day 7)

Subject: "How [similar company] is using [product] now"

Hi [First name],

Quick follow-up — wanted to share something relevant.

[Case study or proof point from a company similar to theirs]:
- [What they achieved]
- [Metric that matters]

[1 sentence connecting this to their specific situation]

[CTA — slightly stronger: "Want me to show you the new [feature] in 10 minutes?"]

[Signature]

Email 3: The Offer (Day 14)

Subject: "[Specific offer — e.g., 'Free migration + 30 days on us']"

Hi [First name],

I know switching tools is a pain — that's usually what keeps people from
coming back even when the product has improved.

So we're making it easy:
- [Offer detail 1 — e.g., "We'll handle the full migration"]
- [Offer detail 2 — e.g., "30 days free to test everything"]
- [Offer detail 3 — e.g., "Dedicated onboarding session"]

[If applicable: "This offer is available through [date]"]

Worth a conversation?

[Signature]

Email 4: The Breakup (Day 28)

Subject: "Closing the loop"

Hi [First name],

Totally understand if the timing isn't right — just wanted to
make sure this didn't slip through the cracks.

Quick summary of what's new:
→ [Key improvement 1]
→ [Key improvement 2]
→ [Standing offer, if applicable]

If anything changes on your end, my inbox is always open.

[Signature]

P.S. [Genuinely helpful resource — e.g., "We just published [relevant content].
Worth a read regardless of which tool you're using."]

Win-Back Sequence — Medium Priority (3 emails over 3 weeks)

Shorter, less personalized but still relevant:

Email 1: Product update announcement + relevance to their use case Email 2: Customer proof point + specific offer Email 3: Soft breakup with resource share

Win-Back Sequence — Competitor-Specific

If they switched to a known competitor:

Email 1: "How [product] compares to [competitor] today" — honest, non-aggressive comparison focused on what changed Email 2: Customer story of someone who switched back from that specific competitor Email 3: Offer + easy migration path

Phase 4: Output Format

# Win-Back Opportunity Report — [DATE]
Churned accounts analyzed: [N]
Time window: [Churned between X and Y months ago]

---

## Summary

| Priority | Accounts | Total MRR Opportunity |
|----------|----------|----------------------|
| High Priority | [N] | $[X]/mo |
| Medium Priority | [N] | $[X]/mo |
| Low Priority / Skip | [N] | $[X]/mo |

**Total recoverable MRR:** $[X]/mo (estimated, assuming [Y%] win-back rate)

---

## High Priority Accounts

### [Company 1] — Churned: [date] | Former MRR: $[X]
**Churn reason:** [Reason]
**What's changed (them):** [Research findings]
**What's changed (us):** [Product updates that address their pain]
**Win-back angle:** [The core pitch]
**Contact:** [Name, title, email]
**Sequence:** [Attached — 4 emails, personalized]

### [Company 2] — ...

---

## Medium Priority Accounts

| Account | Churned | MRR | Churn Reason | Win-Back Angle | Score |
|---------|---------|-----|-------------|---------------|-------|
| [Name] | [Date] | $[X] | [Reason] | [Angle] | [N] |

---

## Email Sequences

### [Company 1] — Full Personalized Sequence
[Email 1: Subject + body]
[Email 2: Subject + body]
[Email 3: Subject + body]
[Email 4: Subject + body]

### [Company 2] — ...

---

## Accounts to Skip (and Why)

| Account | Reason to Skip |
|---------|---------------|
| [Name] | [Still in same situation / company shut down / too recent] |

---

## Win-Back Campaign Setup

If using Smartlead:
- Campaign name: "Win-Back — [Month] [Year]"
- Sequences: [Use generated sequences above]
- Timing: [Recommended send schedule]
- Sender: [Recommended — founder for high priority, CSM for medium]

Save to clients/<client-name>/customer-success/win-back/win-back-report-[YYYY-MM-DD].md.

Cost

| Component | Cost | |-----------|------| | Web research per churned account | Free | | LinkedIn research (optional) | ~$0.25-0.50 per account | | Sequence generation | Free (LLM reasoning) | | Total | Free — $5 (for ~10 accounts with LinkedIn research) |

Tools Required

• web_search — for company and competitor research
• fetch_webpage — for career pages, news, competitor reviews
• Optional: linkedin-profile-post-scraper for contact monitoring
• Optional: review-site-scraper for competitor dissatisfaction signals
• Optional: cold-email-outreach for campaign creation

Trigger Phrases

• "Which churned customers should we win back?"
• "Build a win-back sequence for [customer]"
• "Research our churn list for re-engagement"
• "Run the win-back scan"
• "Generate win-back emails for churned accounts"