athility/startup-business-analyst-financial-projections

Financial Projections

Create a comprehensive 3-5 year financial model with revenue projections, cost structure, headcount planning, cash flow analysis, and three-scenario modeling (conservative, base, optimistic) for startup financial planning and fundraising.

Use this skill when

• Working on financial projections tasks or workflows
• Needing guidance, best practices, or checklists for financial projections

Do not use this skill when

• The task is unrelated to financial projections
• You need a different domain or tool outside this scope

Instructions

• Clarify goals, constraints, and required inputs.
• Apply relevant best practices and validate outcomes.
• Provide actionable steps and verification.
• If detailed examples are required, open resources/implementation-playbook.md.

What This Command Does

This command builds a complete financial model including:

1. Cohort-based revenue projections
2. Detailed cost structure (COGS, S&M, R&D, G&A)
3. Headcount planning by role
4. Monthly cash flow analysis
5. Key metrics (CAC, LTV, burn rate, runway)
6. Three-scenario analysis

Instructions for Claude

When this command is invoked, follow these steps:

Step 1: Gather Model Inputs

Ask the user for essential information:

Business Model:

• Revenue model (SaaS, marketplace, transaction, etc.)
• Pricing structure (tiers, average price)
• Target customer segments

Starting Point:

• Current MRR/ARR (if any)
• Current customer count
• Current team size
• Current cash balance

Growth Assumptions:

• Expected monthly customer acquisition
• Customer retention/churn rate
• Average contract value (ACV)
• Sales cycle length

Cost Assumptions:

• Gross margin or COGS %
• S&M budget or CAC target
• Current burn rate (if applicable)

Funding:

• Planned fundraising (amount, timing)
• Pre/post-money valuation

Step 2: Activate startup-financial-modeling Skill

The startup-financial-modeling skill provides frameworks. Reference it for:

• Revenue modeling approaches
• Cost structure templates
• Headcount planning guidance
• Scenario analysis methods

Step 3: Build Revenue Model

Use Cohort-Based Approach:

For each month, track:

1. New customers acquired
2. Existing customers retained (apply churn)
3. Revenue per cohort (customers × ARPU)
4. Expansion revenue (upsells)

Formula:

MRR (Month N) = Σ across all cohorts:
  (Cohort Size × Retention Rate × ARPU) + Expansion

Project:

• Monthly detail for Year 1-2
• Quarterly detail for Year 3
• Annual for Years 4-5

Step 4: Model Cost Structure

Break down operating expenses:

1. Cost of Goods Sold (COGS)

• Hosting/infrastructure (% of revenue or fixed)
• Payment processing (% of revenue)
• Variable customer support
• Third-party services

Target gross margin:

• SaaS: 75-85%
• Marketplace: 60-70%
• E-commerce: 40-60%

2. Sales & Marketing (S&M)

• Sales team compensation
• Marketing programs
• Tools and software
• Target: 40-60% of revenue (early stage)

3. Research & Development (R&D)

• Engineering team
• Product management
• Design
• Target: 30-40% of revenue

4. General & Administrative (G&A)

• Executive team
• Finance, legal, HR
• Office and facilities
• Target: 15-25% of revenue

Step 5: Plan Headcount

Create role-by-role hiring plan:

Reference team-composition-analysis skill for:

• Roles by stage
• Compensation benchmarks
• Hiring velocity assumptions

For each role:

• Title and department
• Start date (month/quarter)
• Base salary
• Fully-loaded cost (salary × 1.3-1.4)
• Equity grant

Track departmental ratios:

• Engineering: 40-50% of team
• Sales & Marketing: 25-35%
• G&A: 10-15%
• Product/CS: 10-15%

Step 6: Calculate Cash Flow

Monthly cash flow projection:

Beginning Cash Balance
+ Cash Collected (revenue, consider payment terms)
- Operating Expenses
- CapEx
= Ending Cash Balance

Monthly Burn = Revenue - Expenses (if negative)
Runway = Cash Balance / Monthly Burn Rate

Include Funding Events:

• Timing of raises
• Amount raised
• Use of proceeds
• Impact on cash balance

Step 7: Compute Key Metrics

Calculate monthly/quarterly:

Unit Economics:

• CAC (S&M spend / new customers)
• LTV (ARPU × margin% / churn rate)
• LTV:CAC ratio (target > 3.0)
• CAC payback period (target < 18 months)

Efficiency Metrics:

• Burn multiple (net burn / net new ARR) - target < 2.0
• Magic number (net new ARR / S&M spend) - target > 0.5
• Rule of 40 (growth% + margin%) - target > 40%

Cash Metrics:

• Monthly burn rate
• Runway in months
• Cash efficiency

Step 8: Create Three Scenarios

Build conservative, base, and optimistic projections:

Conservative (P10):

• New customers: -30% vs. base
• Churn: +20% vs. base
• Pricing: -15% vs. base
• CAC: +25% vs. base

Base (P50):

• Most likely assumptions
• Primary planning scenario

Optimistic (P90):

• New customers: +30% vs. base
• Churn: -20% vs. base
• Pricing: +15% vs. base
• CAC: -25% vs. base

Step 9: Generate Financial Model Report

Create comprehensive markdown report with tables:

Section 1: Executive Summary

• 3-5 year financial snapshot
• Key metrics at scale
• Funding requirements

Section 2: Model Assumptions

• Revenue model and pricing
• Growth assumptions
• Cost structure assumptions
• Headcount plan summary

Section 3: Revenue Projections Monthly/quarterly tables showing:

| Month | New Customers | Total Customers | MRR | ARR | Growth % |
|-------|---------------|-----------------|-----|-----|----------|

Section 4: Cost Breakdown

| Department | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | % Revenue |
|------------|--------|--------|--------|-----------|
| COGS       | $X     | $Y     | $Z     | XX%       |
| S&M        | $X     | $Y     | $Z     | XX%       |
| R&D        | $X     | $Y     | $Z     | XX%       |
| G&A        | $X     | $Y     | $Z     | XX%       |

Section 5: Headcount Plan

| Department | Current | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 |
|------------|---------|--------|--------|--------|
| Engineering| X       | Y      | Z      | W      |

Section 6: Cash Flow Analysis

| Quarter | Revenue | Expenses | Net Burn | Cash Balance | Runway |
|---------|---------|----------|----------|--------------|--------|

Section 7: Key Metrics

| Metric | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Target |
|--------|--------|--------|--------|--------|
| CAC | $X | $Y | $Z | <$A |
| LTV | $X | $Y | $Z | >$B |
| Burn Multiple | X | Y | Z | <2.0 |

Section 8: Scenario Analysis

| Scenario | Year 3 ARR | Customers | Burn | Runway |
|----------|------------|-----------|------|--------|
| Conservative | $Xم | Y | $Z | W mo |
| Base | $X | Y | $Z | W mo |
| Optimistic | $X | Y | $Z | W mo |

Section 9: Funding Requirements

• Amount needed
• Use of proceeds breakdown
• Milestones to achieve
• Expected valuation impact

Section 10: Validation

• Sanity checks performed
• Benchmark comparisons
• Risk factors
• Assumptions to monitor

Step 10: Save Model

Offer to save as markdown file:

• Suggest filename: financial-projections-YYYY-MM-DD.md
• Include note that user can convert to Excel/Sheets
• Provide formulas for key calculations

Financial Model Best Practices

Do:

• Use cohort-based revenue model
• Include 3 scenarios
• Show monthly detail (Year 1-2)
• Calculate key metrics
• Validate against benchmarks
• Document all assumptions
• Show cash flow and runway
• Include fundraising milestones

Don't:

• Be overly optimistic on growth
• Underestimate costs
• Forget fully-loaded compensation
• Ignore cash timing
• Skip scenario analysis
• Use static headcount
• Forget to validate

Integration with Other Commands

Pairs well with:

• /market-opportunity - Use SOM for revenue ceiling
• /business-case - Include projections in business case

Example Usage

User: /financial-projections

Claude: I'll create a comprehensive financial model for your startup. Let me gather the key inputs.

What's your business model?
→ "B2B SaaS, subscription-based"

Current state?
→ "$50K MRR, 100 customers, 5-person team, $500K cash"

Growth assumptions?
→ "Expect 15% MoM growth, 10% monthly churn, $500 ACV"

[Claude builds complete model with all sections]

Notes

• Model building takes 45-90 minutes
• Results in comprehensive planning tool
• Update monthly to track vs. actuals
• Share with investors and board
• Use for fundraising decks
• Basis for budget and hiring decisions