anthropics/investment-banking/skills/merger-model

Merger Model

description: Build accretion/dilution analysis for M&A transactions. Models pro forma EPS impact, synergy sensitivities, and purchase price allocation. Use when evaluating a potential acquisition, preparing merger consequences analysis for a pitch, or advising on deal terms. Triggers on "merger model", "accretion dilution", "M&A model", "pro forma EPS", "merger consequences", or "deal impact analysis".

Workflow

Step 1: Gather Inputs

Acquirer:

• Company name, current share price, shares outstanding
• LTM and NTM EPS (GAAP and adjusted)
• P/E multiple
• Pre-tax cost of debt, tax rate
• Cash on balance sheet, existing debt

Target:

• Company name, current share price, shares outstanding (if public)
• LTM and NTM EPS or net income
• Enterprise value or equity value

Deal Terms:

• Offer price per share (or premium to current)
• Consideration mix: % cash vs. % stock
• New debt raised to fund cash portion
• Expected synergies (revenue and cost) and phase-in timeline
• Transaction fees and financing costs
• Expected close date

Step 2: Purchase Price Analysis

| Item | Value | |------|-------| | Offer price per share | | | Premium to current | | | Equity value | | | Plus: net debt assumed | | | Enterprise value | | | EV / EBITDA implied | | | P/E implied | |

Step 3: Sources & Uses

| Sources | $ | Uses | $ | |---------|---|------|---| | New debt | | Equity purchase price | | | Cash on hand | | Refinance target debt | | | New equity issued | | Transaction fees | | | | | Financing fees | | | Total | | Total | |

Step 4: Pro Forma EPS (Accretion / Dilution)

Calculate year-by-year (Year 1-3):

| | Standalone | Pro Forma | Accretion/(Dilution) | |---|-----------|-----------|---------------------| | Acquirer net income | | | | | Target net income | | | | | Synergies (after tax) | | | | | Foregone interest on cash (after tax) | | | | | New debt interest (after tax) | | | | | Intangible amortization (after tax) | | | | | Pro forma net income | | | | | Pro forma shares | | | | | Pro forma EPS | | | | | Accretion / (Dilution) % | | | |

Step 5: Sensitivity Analysis

Accretion/Dilution vs. Synergies and Offer Premium:

| | $0M syn | $25M syn | $50M syn | $75M syn | $100M syn | |---|---------|----------|----------|----------|-----------| | 15% premium | | | | | | | 20% premium | | | | | | | 25% premium | | | | | | | 30% premium | | | | | |

Accretion/Dilution vs. Cash/Stock Mix:

| | 100% cash | 75/25 | 50/50 | 25/75 | 100% stock | |---|-----------|-------|-------|-------|------------| | Year 1 | | | | | | | Year 2 | | | | | |

Step 6: Breakeven Synergies

Calculate the minimum synergies needed for the deal to be EPS-neutral in Year 1.

Step 7: Output

• Excel workbook with:
  • Assumptions tab
  • Sources & uses
  • Pro forma income statement
  • Accretion/dilution summary
  • Sensitivity tables
  • Breakeven analysis
• One-page merger consequences summary for pitch book

Important Notes

• Always show both GAAP and adjusted (cash) EPS where relevant
• Stock deals: use acquirer's current price for exchange ratio, note dilution from new shares
• Include purchase price allocation — goodwill and intangible amortization matter for GAAP EPS
• Synergy phase-in is critical — Year 1 is often only 25-50% of run-rate synergies
• Don't forget foregone interest income on cash used and new interest expense on debt raised
• Tax rate on synergies and interest adjustments should match the acquirer's marginal rate