alsk1992/weather
src/skills/bundled/weather/SKILL.md
Weather betting - NOAA data for Polymarket weather markets
$ install --global
skillsauthnpx skillsauth add alsk1992/cloddsbot weatherInstall this skill globally with one command. Works with Claude Code, Cursor, and Windsurf.
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Last scanned: Apr 23, 2026, 1:36 AM1.7s1 file scanned
SKILL.md
- name:
- weather
- description:
- Weather betting - NOAA data for Polymarket weather markets
- command:
- weather
- emoji:
- 🌤️
Weather Betting
Use NOAA weather forecasts to find edge on Polymarket weather markets.
Commands
/weather scan Scan all weather markets for edge
/weather forecast <city> Get NOAA forecast for a city
/weather markets List active weather markets
/weather edge <market-id> Calculate edge for specific market
/weather bet <market-id> <amount> Execute bet
/weather auto [--threshold 10] Auto-bet on high-edge markets
/weather history View bet history
Examples
/weather forecast "New York"
/weather scan
/weather edge abc123
/weather bet abc123 10
/weather auto --threshold 15
How It Works
- Fetch NOAA Forecast: Get official NWS weather data (free, no API key)
- Match to Markets: Find Polymarket weather markets for the same location/date
- Calculate Edge: Compare NOAA probability to market YES price
- Bet if Edge: If NOAA probability differs significantly from market, bet
Edge Calculation
Edge = NOAA Probability - Market Price
Example:
NOAA says 80% chance of rain in NYC tomorrow
Polymarket "Will it rain in NYC?" YES price: 0.65 (65%)
Edge = 80% - 65% = +15% -> Bet YES
Supported Market Types
- Temperature: "Will NYC exceed 90°F on Saturday?"
- Precipitation: "Will it rain in LA tomorrow?"
- Snow: "Will Chicago get 6+ inches of snow?"
- Record: "Will Phoenix hit a record high this week?"
Confidence Levels
- High: Edge >= 15%, reliable forecast data
- Medium: Edge 10-15%, some uncertainty
- Low: Edge 5-10%, more speculative
Position Sizing
Uses quarter-Kelly criterion for conservative sizing:
Bet Size = Bankroll * (Edge / Odds) * 0.25
Capped at 10% of bankroll per bet.
Supported Cities
Major US cities including: New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Houston, Phoenix, Philadelphia, San Antonio, San Diego, Dallas, San Jose, Austin, Jacksonville, San Francisco, Seattle, Denver, Washington DC, Boston, Nashville, Detroit, and more.
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