alsk1992/research
src/skills/bundled/research/SKILL.md
Research prediction markets - base rates, resolution rules, historical data
$ install --global
skillsauthnpx skillsauth add alsk1992/cloddsbot researchInstall this skill globally with one command. Works with Claude Code, Cursor, and Windsurf.
Security Scan Results
3 of 9 scanners reported clean
Some scanners were skipped, did not run, or reported a non-clean status. Review each row below.
3
Scanners Passed
9
Scanners in report
Clean
TrivyContainer and dependency vulnerability scanner
95%
Clean
SemgrepStatic code analysis for vulnerabilities
95%
Clean
mcp-scan (Snyk)Model Context Protocol security validation
95%
Skipped
Snyk (dep)Open source security scanning
50%
Skipped
Socket.devSupply chain security analysis
50%
Skipped
VirusTotalMulti-engine malware detection
50%
Skipped
CrowdStrikeAdvanced threat intelligence
50%
Skipped
OSV-ScannerOpen Source Vulnerability database check
50%
Skipped
OWASP Dep-Check
50%
Last scanned: Apr 4, 2026, 4:16 AM5.2s2 files scanned
SKILL.md
- name:
- research
- description:
- Research prediction markets - base rates, resolution rules, historical data
- emoji:
- 🔬
Research Skill
Help users research markets with base rates, resolution criteria, and historical analogies.
Commands
Base Rate Lookup
/baserate incumbent senators losing
/baserate fed rate cuts when inflation below 3%
/baserate supreme court overturning precedent
Resolution Rules
/resolution [market-id]
Historical Analogs
/history similar to "Trump 2028"
Research Areas
Political Markets
- Incumbent win rates by office type
- Primary prediction accuracy
- Polling vs outcome correlations
- Electoral college patterns
Economic Markets
- Fed rate decision patterns
- Recession indicator accuracy
- Inflation forecast track records
- Employment report surprises
Sports/Events
- Historical upset frequencies
- Weather event base rates
- Award show prediction accuracy
Examples
User: "What's the base rate for Senate incumbents losing?" → Historical analysis: 8.2% since 1980 → Key factors: approval rating, scandals, wave elections
User: "How does the market usually resolve for Fed meetings?" → Explain FOMC resolution criteria → Show historical price action around announcements
User: "Has a market like this been wrong before?" → Find similar historical markets → Show when market consensus missed
Output Format
🔬 BASE RATE ANALYSIS
Query: Senate incumbent losing reelection
Historical Rate: 8.2% (47/572 since 1980)
Key Factors:
• Approval < 45%: 23% lose
• Major scandal: 31% lose
• Wave election (opposite party): 15% lose
• First-term incumbent: 12% lose
Relevant Markets:
• Ted Cruz 2024: 52¢ (current)
• Jon Tester 2024: 38¢ (current)
Sources: FEC data, Cook Political Report
Related Skills
alsk1992/yoink
testing
VerifiedTrustedCommunity
Play Yoink capture-the-flag game on Base - yoink the flag, check scores, compete for trophy
141SKILL.mdUpdated Apr 4, 2026
alsk1992/x-research
research
VerifiedTrustedCommunity
X/Twitter research via Composio — search, threads, profiles, watchlists
141SKILL.mdUpdated Apr 4, 2026
alsk1992/whale-tracking
development
VerifiedTrustedCommunity
Monitor whale trades on Polymarket and crypto chains (Solana, ETH, Polygon, ARB, Base, OP)
141SKILL.mdUpdated Apr 4, 2026
alsk1992/webhooks
development
VerifiedTrustedCommunity
Webhook management with HMAC signing and rate limiting
141SKILL.mdUpdated Apr 4, 2026