admin-baked/skills/grower/sell-through-partner-analysis

Sell-Through Partner Analysis

Purpose

Give a grower a ranked view of which dispensary partners are moving product — and which are letting it sit — so wholesale effort, preferential pricing, and inventory routing go to the partners who actually turn inventory into revenue.

When to Use

• Monthly or quarterly grower partner review
• Grower is deciding which partners to prioritize for a new batch or strain release
• Aging inventory needs to be routed to highest-velocity partners (feeds from inventory-aging-risk-review)
• A partner hasn't reordered in longer than expected
• Grower is evaluating whether to expand or contract their retail partner list

When NOT to Use

• Inventory aging decisions → inventory-aging-risk-review drives those; this skill informs routing, not risk assessment
• Retail account opportunity review from the brand side → retail-account-opportunity-review covers that perspective
• Partner compliance issues → Deebo; sell-through performance ≠ compliance posture
• Pricing strategy → Money Mike; this skill identifies where to offer incentives, not what price to set
• Customer-level analytics within a dispensary → Pops + dispensary's own data; grower visibility stops at the partner door

Required Inputs

• org_id / grower_id — required
• review_window — default: last 60 days
• partner_list — all active retail dispensary partners; pulled from CRM
• shipment_data — units shipped per partner per SKU per week
• reorder_data — reorder dates, quantities, cadence per partner
• sell_through_reports — if available from POS share (optional but improves accuracy)

Reasoning Approach

Sell-through is a velocity signal, not just a volume signal. A small dispensary with 100% sell-through in 10 days is a better partner for limited stock than a large dispensary with 40% sell-through in 60 days.

Three metrics to score each partner:

1. Sell-through rate units_sold / units_ordered × 100 over the review window.

• 85% in ≤ 30 days: high velocity ✅

• 60–85% in 30–60 days: solid, improving or holding 🟡
• < 60% OR > 60 days to clear: slow-moving 🔴
• No sell-through data: flag as unverified; use reorder cadence as proxy

2. Reorder cadence

• Reordering before previous shipment is cleared: sell-through is healthy, partner is confident
• Reordering on expected schedule: reliable, maintain relationship
• Reordering late or not at all: investigate — out of budget, low velocity, or competitor displacement

3. SKU diversity Partners carrying only 1–2 SKUs have concentration risk — if that strain/form misses, the relationship stalls. Partners carrying 4+ SKUs across categories are higher-quality partners worth investing in.

Partner tiers:

• Tier 1 (Grow): High sell-through + regular reorders + SKU diversity → prioritize for new launches, exclusive early access
• Tier 2 (Maintain): Solid velocity, consistent orders → keep stocked, no over-investment needed
• Tier 3 (Develop): Potential visible but underperforming → diagnose block; propose product mix change or rep visit
• Tier 4 (Review): Low velocity + irregular reorders → discuss future of relationship; route aging stock cautiously

Output Contract

## Sell-Through Partner Analysis — [Grower/Brand] — [Period]

PARTNERS REVIEWED: N  |  TOTAL UNITS SHIPPED: N  |  BLENDED SELL-THROUGH: X%

### Partner Scorecard
| Partner | Tier | Sell-Through | Reorder Cadence | SKUs Carried | Action |
|---------|------|-------------|----------------|-------------|--------|
| Thrive Syracuse | 1 | 92% / 18 days | Every 3 weeks | 5 SKUs | Priority for next batch |
| [Name] | 3 | 54% / 55 days | Irregular | 2 SKUs | Product mix conversation |

### Tier 1 — Grow (N partners)
[Partner, top-performing SKU, recommended action: early access, volume incentive, deepened relationship]

### Tier 2 — Maintain (N partners)
[Partner list — steady state, no intervention needed]

### Tier 3 — Develop (N partners)
[Partner, velocity gap, likely cause, specific action: SKU swap, rep visit, promotional support]

### Tier 4 — Review (N partners)
[Partner, days since last reorder, inventory outstanding, recommended conversation]

### Aging Stock Routing Recommendation
[From inventory-aging-risk-review input: route at-risk batches to these Tier 1/2 partners]

### Recommended Actions
| # | Action | Partner | Owner | Timeline |
|---|--------|---------|-------|----------|
| 1 | Early access offer for next Blue Dream batch | Thrive, [Partner 2] | Sales | Before harvest |
| 2 | Product mix conversation — swap [SKU] for [SKU] | [Develop partner] | Rep | This week |

Edge Cases

• No sell-through data from partner (self-report not provided): Use reorder cadence as proxy; flag confidence as Medium
• Partner just onboarded (< 60 days): Exclude from tier scoring; tag as ramp phase; track velocity weekly
• One large partner dominates total units: Analyze concentration risk; produce analysis with and without anchor partner
• Partner in a different state than grower: Flag any interstate transfer compliance considerations before routing aged stock
• Seasonal strain (e.g., harvest-specific): Contextualize velocity vs. seasonal demand, not all-time baseline

Escalation Rules

• Tier 1 partner's reorder cadence suddenly drops 50%+: Escalate to sales lead immediately — may indicate competitor displacement or buyer change
• Tier 4 partner holds >$5,000 of uncommitted aging inventory: Escalate to operator; may need a direct conversation or return negotiation
• Partner requests product modification or custom packaging: Escalate to super_user — outside standard wholesale scope

Compliance Notes

• Sell-through data shared by retail partners is confidential; do not disclose one partner's performance data to another
• Any inventory routing decisions that cross state lines require compliance review before action
• Volume incentive offers to Tier 1 partners must be reviewed by Deebo if they involve promotional pricing language
• NY grower-to-retailer transfer records must remain accurate regardless of sell-through strategy