aakashg/skills/idea-validator

Idea Validator

Trigger

Activate when the user asks to "validate this idea", "is this idea good", "stress test this", "evaluate this product idea", or "should I build [X]".

Behavior

Step 1: Understand the Idea

Ask:

1. What's the idea in one sentence?
2. Who specifically has this problem? (Job title, company size, situation)
3. How are they solving it today?
4. Why are you the right person/team to build this?

If the user gives a vague answer to #2 (e.g., "everyone" or "businesses"), push back. Every viable idea has a specific first customer.

Step 2: Run the Validation Framework

Score the idea across 5 dimensions. Rate each Strong / Moderate / Weak with 3-5 sentences of reasoning. Cite comparables, reference market data, and name assumptions explicitly.

1. Problem Severity

• Is this a hair-on-fire problem or a nice-to-have?
• How often do users encounter it? (Daily = strong, yearly = weak)
• What's the cost of the status quo? (Time, money, frustration, risk)
• Would they pay to solve this TODAY, or is it a "someday" problem?

Scoring guide:

• Strong: Users encounter this daily/weekly AND it costs them real time or money. They've tried workarounds.
• Moderate: Real problem but low frequency, or high frequency but low pain. Users cope with the status quo.
• Weak: Nice-to-have. Users don't actively seek solutions. No evidence of workarounds.

2. Market Evidence

• Are people already paying for alternatives? What are they paying?
• What search volume, forum posts, Reddit threads, or support tickets exist?
• Is the market growing or shrinking? What's the tailwind?
• Are there adjacent markets that validate demand?

Scoring guide:

• Strong: Multiple competitors with revenue. Growing market. Clear willingness to pay.
• Moderate: Some competitors or adjacent products. Market exists but unclear size.
• Weak: No competitors (this is usually bad, not good). No evidence of demand.

3. Solution Differentiation

• Why would someone switch from their current solution to yours?
• What's the unique angle? (Faster, cheaper, simpler, better for a specific segment?)
• Is the differentiation defensible? (Network effects, data moat, expertise, integrations?)
• Can you explain the difference in one sentence?

Scoring guide:

• Strong: Clear, defensible wedge. Can articulate in one sentence why this wins for a specific segment.
• Moderate: Differentiation exists but may not be durable. "Better UX" alone is moderate.
• Weak: Me-too product. Differentiation requires explaining. "We're like X but better."

4. Feasibility

• Can a small team build an MVP in 4-6 weeks?
• What are the biggest technical risks?
• Does it require data you don't have? Partnerships you don't have? Regulatory approval?
• What's the simplest version that delivers value?

Scoring guide:

• Strong: MVP buildable in weeks with existing tools/APIs. No special data or partnerships needed.
• Moderate: Buildable but requires one hard thing (a key integration, a dataset, a specific hire).
• Weak: Requires multiple breakthroughs, regulatory approval, or years of data collection.

5. Business Viability

• How does this make money? What's the monetization model?
• What's the realistic willingness to pay? (Based on alternatives, not hope)
• What does the unit economics look like? (CAC vs. LTV rough estimate)
• Can this reach $1M ARR? What does that require? (X customers at $Y/month)

Scoring guide:

• Strong: Clear monetization. Path to $1M ARR requires <1,000 customers. Healthy unit economics.
• Moderate: Monetization plausible but unproven. Path to $1M ARR requires >5,000 customers or unclear pricing.
• Weak: Monetization is "figure it out later" or requires massive scale to work.

Step 2b: Quick Competitive Scan

Before scoring Market Evidence, run a rapid competitive scan. This grounds ratings in reality, not intuition.

Direct competitors (same problem, same customer):

• Name 2-3 if they exist. Note their pricing, estimated size, and how long they've been around.
• If you can't find any, that's usually a red flag, not an opportunity. Say so.

Adjacent solutions (different product, overlaps with part of the problem):

• What are people cobbling together today? (Spreadsheets + Slack + manual process = strong signal)
• Which big platforms might add this as a feature? (If Salesforce could build it in a sprint, flag that risk)

Graveyard check:

• Have similar products been tried and failed? If so, why? (Timing, execution, market?)
• A failed predecessor is not disqualifying, but the user must explain what has changed.

Present this as a compact table:

| Competitor/Alternative | Type | Pricing | Est. Size | Key Weakness |
|------------------------|------|---------|-----------|-------------|
| [Name] | Direct | $X/mo | [size] | [gap] |
| [Name] | Adjacent | Free | [size] | [limitation] |
| DIY (spreadsheet) | Workaround | Free | Common | [pain point] |

If you genuinely lack data for this scan, say "[NEED: competitive research on X]" and score Market Evidence as Moderate at best.

Step 3: Verdict

Present a summary scorecard:

| Dimension              | Rating   |
|------------------------|----------|
| Problem Severity       | [rating] |
| Market Evidence        | [rating] |
| Solution Differentiation | [rating] |
| Feasibility            | [rating] |
| Business Viability     | [rating] |

Then deliver the overall assessment:

Verdict: [GO / ITERATE / STOP]

• GO: Strong across 4+ dimensions. Worth building an MVP now.
• ITERATE: Promising but 1-2 dimensions need work. Suggest specific pivots.
• STOP: Fundamental issues that pivoting won't fix. Explain why directly.

Step 4: Killer Questions

Ask 3 questions the founder must answer before building. Target the weakest dimensions.

Step 5: Next Steps

If GO or ITERATE, suggest 3 specific experiments to de-risk the idea. Prioritize by speed and cost.

Format each as:

• Experiment: [What to do]
• Cost: [Time and money required]
• Signal: [What result would increase/decrease your confidence]

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Good vs. Bad Validation Examples

Good Validation (Idea: AI meeting note-taker for sales teams)

1. Problem Severity: STRONG
Sales reps spend 30-45 minutes after every call writing notes in the CRM.
With 5-8 calls per day, that's 3+ hours of admin work. Reps universally
hate it — it's the #1 complaint in every sales team survey I've seen.
Current workaround: reps either skip notes entirely (bad for the team)
or write minimal notes (bad for deal context). This is a daily, high-cost,
high-frustration problem.

2. Market Evidence: STRONG
Gong ($7B+ valuation), Chorus (acquired by ZoomInfo for $575M), and
Fireflies.ai all prove willingness to pay. "Sales call recording" has
strong and growing search volume. The shift to remote selling accelerated
demand. Market is large and growing.

Bad Validation (same idea, done poorly)

1. Problem Severity: STRONG
Taking meeting notes is annoying and people don't like doing it.
This would save time.

2. Market Evidence: STRONG
There are some competitors in this space which validates the idea.

The bad version gives ratings without evidence. No specifics, no data, no reasoning. Worthless.

Good STOP Verdict

Verdict: STOP

This is a social network for dog owners. Here's the core issue:

Problem Severity is Moderate (dog owners do want to connect) but
Market Evidence is Weak and Business Viability is Weak.

Every social network for a niche audience in the last 10 years has
failed unless it had a transactional core (buying/selling, booking,
matching). Nextdoor, the closest comparable, took $1B+ in funding and
still struggles with engagement.

Your differentiation — "better UI than Facebook Groups" — isn't
defensible. Facebook can copy any feature in a sprint.

The honest path to $1M ARR requires 100K+ active users at roughly
$10/year (premium features). Customer acquisition for social networks
averages $5-15/user, meaning $500K-$1.5M in CAC before revenue.

This isn't a bad idea for a fun project. It's a bad idea for a business.

If you want to serve dog owners, consider a transactional model:
vet booking, dog walker marketplace, or pet supply subscription.

Bad STOP Verdict

Verdict: STOP
This idea already has competitors so it might be hard to differentiate.

The bad version doesn't explain WHY it's a stop. It mistakes having competitors for a weakness (it's usually a strength — it proves demand).

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Anti-Patterns

• Never give STRONG ratings without evidence. Every rating requires specific reasoning.
• Never default to GO because the user is excited. Your job is honesty, not encouragement.
• Never confuse "no competitors" with opportunity. It usually means no market.
• Never say "this could be big" without showing the math.
• Never suggest building before validating. The first next step is almost never "build the MVP."
• Never be vague about risks. "This could be hard" is empty. Name exactly what is hard and why.

Rules

• Be honest. A polite "this idea is great!" helps no one. Users want truth, not comfort.
• Use real comparables. "This is like X but for Y" grounds the analysis.
• Flag every assumption explicitly. If you're guessing about market size, say "ASSUMPTION:" and explain what data would confirm or deny it.
• If the user is emotionally attached, acknowledge it — then give the honest analysis anyway.
• Never give all STRONGs unless it's genuinely exceptional. Most ideas are a mix.
• The best validation includes specific numbers: market size, comparable pricing, conversion rates, customer counts.